Africa could, for the first time in modern history, record a higher average economic growth rate than Asia. This change is driven more by slower growth in Asia than by a major growth surge in Africa.
According to projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise from about 4.1 percent to around 4.4 percent. This comes despite ongoing wars, insurgencies, and political instability in some parts of the continent. At the same time, Asia’s combined economies are forecast to slow to about 4.1 percent in 2026, mainly because of weaker growth in China, the region’s largest economy.
Africa’s outlook is supported by better external conditions. These include a weaker US dollar, lower pressure from debt payments, easing inflation, and strong global prices for key commodities such as gold and copper. In contrast, China is no longer able to grow at the very high rates seen in the past. As its economy matures and its population ages, growth has naturally slowed. China grew rapidly for decades, expanding from a very small economy in the late 1970s to one of the largest in the world today, but such rapid growth is no longer realistic.
Still, experts warn against seeing this possible crossover as a return of the early-2000s “Africa Rising” story. While Africa once benefited from strong demand for commodities from Asia, progress has since been held back by high debt, weak governance, conflict, and low investment.
Growth of 4 or 5 percent is not enough to transform economies. Fast population growth means much of this expansion does not translate into higher income per person. To achieve the kind of structural change seen in East Asia, African economies would need sustained growth of at least 7 percent.
Economic performance also varies widely across the continent. Countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Senegal, Ghana, and Mauritius have recorded strong growth over several years. In contrast, Nigeria and Egypt are expected to grow closer to the regional average, while South Africa continues to lag behind.
Another major factor shaping Africa’s political and economic future is the wave of military takeovers in the Sahel. Since 2020, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have experienced coups that new leaders describe as efforts to reclaim national sovereignty and end long-standing Western political, military, and economic influence.
These countries have left the regional West African bloc, rejected sanctions, and ended key security agreements with France and, in some cases, the United States. Western troops have withdrawn, marking a major shift in regional security arrangements.
In their place, the three states formed the Alliance of Sahel States and have strengthened ties with non-Western partners such as Russia and Turkey, especially in security and economic cooperation. Supporters say this gives them more control over their own policies, while critics argue it could increase insecurity and isolate already fragile economies.
Other international assessments echo these concerns. IMF reports note that Africa’s growth resilience is linked to economic reforms and better macroeconomic management in some countries. However, income gains per person remain small, and risks are high due to heavy debt and limited government budgets.
World Bank forecasts also suggest African growth could improve through 2026 and 2027, but warn that current rates are too low to significantly reduce poverty or drive large-scale industrial development.
In Asia, IMF assessments show that the regional slowdown is mainly due to China’s structural deceleration, which has a large impact because of China’s size. Trade tensions and rising protectionism add further risks.
By 2050, more than one in four people in the world will be African. The continent is also expected to have a larger working-age population than China and India combined.
Because of this, Africa’s economic path will have global consequences. Without stronger and more inclusive growth, the challenges facing the continent could affect the wider world through migration, security risks, and missed economic opportunities.
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