South African economists are urging enhanced global cooperation, stressing the urgent need to counter American trade policies that have severely disrupted exports and could exacerbate job losses in an already struggling economy.
Barely two weeks in to the new US tariff regime, South Africa’s economic outlook has taken a hit. Facing tariffs of 30 percent – the highest rate in sub-Saharan Africa – from its second-largest trade partner, South Africa’s growth forecast for this year and next have both been reduced.
Relations between South Africa and the United States have soured since President Donald Trump’s return to office in January. Trump has been highly critical of the country’s government over a new land law he claims discriminates against white people. The Trump administration expelled Ebrahim Rasool, South Africa’s ambassador to Washington, in mid-March, accusing him of being a “race-baiting politician” opposed to the Trump administration.
Several sectors, accounting for about 35 percent of all US exports, remain exempt from the tariffs. These include copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber products, certain critical minerals, stainless steel scrap and energy products. But the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition has warned that an estimated 30,000 jobs are in jeopardy.
“These tariffs will have a severe impact on South African exports, especially vehicle exports, and also on agricultural exports. And unfortunately, people will lose their jobs and will not easily get new employment, because of the huge unemployment problem we have in South Africa.”
Last week, one of South Africa’s leading financial institutions, Standard Bank Group, slashed the 2025 economic outlook to 0.9 percent – down from 1.7, as projected in March. For 2026, it predicts growth of 1.3, down from an earlier forecast of 2 percent.
Enhanced global cooperation
Goolam Ballim chief economist for the Standard Bank Group, accused the United States’ so-called “reciprocal tariff” policy of weaponising trade as a political tool.
“Up to two thirds of South Africa’s export basket is comprised of mining sector output as well as manufacturing items and most notably automotive products. So these are directly in the crosshairs given the very substantial 30 percent tariff,” Ballim told China Media Group.
“America is deeply concerned that it, as an empire, is in decline and it wants to arrest its decline, but at the same time stemming the ascendancy of other nations. It’s about international competition and there is a weaponisation of trade and industrial policy. If we locked out of the United States, we will continue to work to enhancing relationships with, let’s call it the Global North excluding the United States and the Global South,” Ballim said.
The government has been scrambling to diversify South Africa’s export markets, particularly by deepening intra-African trade. Countries across Asia and the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, have been touted as opportunities for high-growth markets. The government said it had made significant progress in opening vast new markets like China and Thailand, securing vital protocols for products like citrus.
China is South Africa’s largest trading partner, accounting for 20 percent of the country’s exports, compared to less than 8 percent that goes to the United States.
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