With just 6 days remaining until the African Development Bank (AfDB) elects its next president on 29 May, the race to succeed Akinwumi Adesina is entering its final stretch. Five candidates have been shortlisted, each bringing a blend of regional backing and financial acumen to the table. But the decision on who will take the reins of Africa’s premier development bank lies not only in qualifications but in geopolitics and alliances.
The Contenders
The five official candidates are Amadou Hott of Senegal, Swazi Bajabulile Tshabalala of South Africa, Sidi Ould Tah of Mauritania, Samuel Munzele Maimbo of Zambia, and Mahamat Abbas Tolli of Chad.
Hott, Senegal’s former Minister of Economy and a former special envoy for the AfDB, is viewed as a technocrat with deep ties to international finance. Tshabalala brings institutional knowledge as the AfDB’s outgoing Senior Vice President and CFO. Mauritania’s Sidi Ould Tah, who led the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, is another heavyweight with regional development expertise. Samuel Maimbo, formerly with the World Bank, is Zambia’s candidate and has support from the Southern African Development Community. Chad’s Abbas Tolli, a former central bank governor, rounds out the list.
Who Holds the Power?
AfDB presidential elections are decided through a “double majority” system. A successful candidate must win both a majority of the votes from African regional member countries and a majority of all shareholders, including non-African nations.
This makes the election a delicate balance between continental interests and those of external stakeholders such as the United States, Japan, and European nations. If no candidate achieves this in the first round, subsequent rounds are held with the lowest-scoring candidate eliminated after each. The process can extend to five rounds, after which an interim leader may be appointed if a consensus remains elusive.
The Kingmakers
The AfDB is composed of 81 member countries, but voting power is weighted by financial contribution. Nigeria, the bank’s largest African shareholder, holds about 8.2% of the vote. The United States follows with 6.6%, while Egypt, Japan and South Africa also wield significant influence.
These countries, alongside voting blocs such as the SADC, will play a decisive role. Regional alliances could give an edge to Maimbo or Tshabalala, while Hott and Tah may benefit from broader pan-African or Arab support. Non-regional members, often favouring technocratic stability, could push for a candidate with global financial credentials.
Will Multiple Voting Rounds Be Necessary?
Given the divided field and the AfDB’s complex voting rules, it is likely the election will require more than one round. The double-majority threshold is notoriously difficult to meet without broad-based support. However, if a frontrunner garners early momentum, the vote could be wrapped up swiftly.
AfDB Presidential Election – At a Glance
The stakes are high. The incoming president will lead the AfDB through a critical period as Africa grapples with post-pandemic recovery, climate challenges, and infrastructure gaps. As the countdown begins, the real negotiations may well be happening behind closed doors.
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