The world has failed to meet its main climate change target of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 °C, and is on track to breach this threshold within the next decade, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The announcement, made in the agency’s latest annual Emissions Gap report, adds urgency ahead of the UN’s COP30 climate summit later this month.
The report cited slow action by countries to reduce planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions, noting that current policies — the measures already in place — would lead to a rise of around 2.8 °C, far above the 1.5 °C limit enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Even if governments meet their most recent pledges, warming is projected to reach 2.3–2.5 °C. While this is approximately 0.3 °C lower than last year’s UN projection, it shows that new climate plans, including pledges from top CO₂ emitter China, have failed to substantially close the gap.
Lead report author Anne Olhoff said deep emissions cuts implemented immediately could delay the overshoot, “but we can no longer totally avoid it.” UNEP emphasized that reversing the trajectory will be “difficult” and will require faster and larger reductions in emissions to minimize the overshoot.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global average temperature rise to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing the more ambitious goal of 1.5 °C. Scientific assessments underpinning the agreement show that even small increments of warming amplify climate risks. For example, warming of 1.5 °C would destroy at least 70% of coral reefs, compared to 99% at 2 °C. Similarly, a 2 °C rise would more than double the share of the global population exposed to extreme heat, compared with 1.5 °C.
Despite these warnings, greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb. Global emissions increased by 2.3% in 2024, as nations continue to rely on coal, oil, and gas to power their economies. The world has made some progress over the past decade: in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was signed, the planet was on track for a staggering 4 °C increase in average temperatures. Yet the pace of change remains too slow to avert catastrophic impacts.
China’s recent pledge to cut emissions by 7–10% from their peak by 2035 illustrates both the potential and limitations of national commitments. Analysts note that while China often sets modest targets, it has historically exceeded them. Still, UNEP’s report underscores that global action as a whole remains insufficient.
The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C are profound. Extreme weather events — heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires — would become increasingly severe and frequent. Rising sea levels, shrinking ice sheets, and ecosystem collapse are also more likely. UNEP stressed that even a temporary overshoot could have long-term consequences for biodiversity, agriculture, and human health.
COP30, scheduled for later this month, will be a critical forum for countries to debate how to accelerate climate action and finance emissions reductions. UNEP’s findings are expected to add pressure on governments to deliver concrete measures rather than promises.
António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, has described the situation bluntly: avoiding the overshoot of 1.5 °C is now “unlikely” unless emissions trends reverse immediately. Yet experts stress that even limited reductions in warming can save lives, protect ecosystems, and reduce economic costs. Every fraction of a degree avoided matters.
In short, the window to avert the most catastrophic effects of climate change is rapidly closing. While the 1.5 °C target may no longer be guaranteed, bold and immediate action can still limit the severity of the crisis and help secure a more resilient future for the planet.