By Sam Wallace
Fourteen stadiums of 40,000 capacity or more, and at least one of 80,000; 72 training camps paired with hotels; two international broadcast sites; two fan festival sites and then the hotels for the FIFA staff – with the unusually specific requirements for gyms and pools.
Hosting a FIFA World Cup finals is no small undertaking, as the 2034 bid document published on Friday lays out in detail, although it is the sections on tax liabilities and immigration control that are truly breath-taking. Spoiler alert: FIFA wants exemptions. For any bidding country, especially those operating under democratic accountability, it is daunting. For Australia there are just eight weeks to decide.
The deadline for the declaration for 2034 – a World Cup that is 11 years away – was the latest revelation from FIFA President Gianni Infantino this week. It was set for Nov 30 and one gets the impression that the now-diminishing prospect of an Australia bid for 2034 is, for FIFA, at best a nuisance and at worst a nightmare. What if they defied the odds and won?
The preferred FIFA bidder is Saudi Arabia and, in the new post-2015 scandal FIFA, the process needs to look legitimate. Nevertheless, while Football Australia was blindsided by the 2034 announcement, the Saudi Football Federation [SAFF] seemed at ease with it. The SAFF President declared the candidacy in a live interview. In support, even Jordan Henderson submitted a message in the style of a proof-of-life video.
For now, Football Australia is deploying the polite diplomacy towards FIFA one recognises from the English Football Association’s doomed bid for the 2018 finals, 14 years ago. But now, as then, one can sense the quiet disbelief at the scale of the carve-up.
There are cynical FIFA watchers who cannot help but admire the political expediency of FIFA’s 2030 hosting solution, which buys off UEFA, South America’s Concacaf and Africa’s CAF in one go. In doing so, it left 2034 wide open for Infantino’s new project, Saudi – just so long as Australia can be eased out. Like the English FA, a serial bid loser, Australia has lost before – the crooked 2022 race won by Qatar. At some point, crumbs from the FIFA table will have to be swept their way.
For now it is all about Infantino’s new partner, the emergent mega-wealth state of the Middle East fossil fuel economies. Saudi already has the backing of its continental body, the Asian Football Confederation, in which Australia sits. On Friday, an old FIFA tradition was resurrected: pledges of support for a bid that preceded any technical or economic evaluations. First the Djibouti FA and then Kenya declared for Saudi. Africa is, needless to say, an Infantino and Saudi powerbase.
Meanwhile, the European associations wondered exactly when Infantino was to address the giant unsaid: Saudi 2034 would mean another northern hemisphere winter World Cup. More scheduling chaos. The battle to control the match calendar is already raging between UEFA and its expanded Champions League and FIFA’s newly expanded Club World Cup.
In Saudi, Infantino has a partner wealthy enough to help realise his dream of a FIFA that is the dominant competition organiser and revenue generator. Currently, it is not even close. On a four-year cycle, UEFA generates around £17 billion through the Champions League, European Championships and Nations League – its only profitable competitions. The Premier League banks in excess of £10 billion broadcast income in each three-year cycle, which is likely to rise. Even with projections of £9 billion for the 2026 World Cup, that remains FIFA’s one key income source.
The process of awarding the 2018 and 2022 World Cup finals to non-democracies eventually toppled Sepp Blatter, although little has changed when it comes to courting dictators. Saudi, and its leader Mohammed Bin-Salman, was a high-profile attendee at the Qatar tournament last year – desperate for some of the geopolitical capital that its tiny neighbour had earned. Post Qatar, FIFA’s relationship with Saudi is developing so swiftly that one might view FIFA vs UEFA as a proxy battle between Saudi and Qatar.
The Qataris have their hand on the tiller of UEFA with Nasser Al-Khelaifi controlling the European Club Association – the key ally for UEFA president Aleksandar Ceferin. Meanwhile, Saudi has forged such a strong alliance with FIFA that it took public outcry to stop a proposal for the tourism agency Visit Saudi to sponsor the women’s World Cup earlier this year.
Infantino will, of course, point to Saudi’s status as a favoured trading partner of the US and Britain. Of its investment in Newcastle United and the Saudi Pro League and all the other sports and western entities taking Saudi fees. If the rest do business then why not the proselytising fifa president too?
This is chiefly about expanding FIFA’s power and building an alliance that will be extremely useful in the struggle to control football and its wealth. Infantino cannot wait. Even if Australia can get its ducks in a row it is unlikely to be enough. The outstanding women’s finals Australia staged with New Zealand this year should have been a gateway to hosting the men’s 2034 finals, a first for Oceania. But that is not the way it works.
The 2034 decision will be delivered at FIFA Congress in July next year under the auspices of FIFA’s new appetite for transparency. Infantino will no doubt point to the 37-strong FIFA Council upon which the chair of the English FA, Debbie Hewitt, sits alongside others from UEFA associations albeit in a bloc too small to challenge the president. The final vote will be undertaken by the 211 member nations rather than the 22-man executive committee of years past.
This will be the democracy of FIFA in action and there is only a small chance that Australia is still in the running when Saudi win 2034. Most likely there will be just one contender, which is how FIFA would prefer it.
Discussion about this post