Ruben Amorim should not be safe from Man United sack even if he wins Europa League

One of the world’s biggest clubs loses at home to a struggling team. There is talk that the beaten manager might have to go. The unusual aspect this time was that Ruben Amorim instigated it. His reaction to West Ham’s 2-0 win at Old Trafford was to say Manchester United “need to change a lot of things during the summer”. He cast further doubt on his own position. “If we start like this, or if the feeling is still here, we should give the space to different persons,” he said.

If the theory has been that Ange Postecoglou, whose Tottenham team are the only side below United in the table who are staying up, could win the Europa League and be sacked, Amorim seemed to suggest he might suffer the same fate. Not, perhaps, if co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe has his way. He said in March that Amorim was “doing a great job in the circumstances”. If that flew in the face of results, some circumstances have changed: United have since progressed to the Europa League final, only Postecoglou’s terrible Tottenham separating them from a return to the Champions League. They have got still poorer in the Premier League.

Because in any examination if Amorim should stay, there is an element of educated guesswork involved, trying to determine how he will fare next season, there is also the concrete evidence of his debut campaign. Which, in continental competition, looks good. United are the only unbeaten team in Europe. They have scored 18 goals in their last five games. Although as, whatever happens, they won’t be in the Europa League next season, that may be of less relevance.

There are mitigating factors for Amorim’s Premier League form: he was parachuted in mid-season, when he initially preferred to wait for the summer, to a squad who, even after a transfer window, only has two of his recruits. United have had a host of injuries. They have started to field weakened teams to focus on Europe. They have often lacked time on the training ground to adjust to Amorim’s tactics.

But the more time they have had with him, the worse they have got. Their Premier League record would constitute a sackable offence, if Ratcliffe so chose. United have been atrocious, redefining what is possible for a club with their resources. They have two points from their last six games. They have taken 24 from 25 under Amorim; over a season, that equates to 36 and, in previous years, that may have been relegation form. In Erik ten Hag’s sorry final 14 months, he averaged 1.54 points per league match. Amorim’s return is just 0.96. That difference makes him, statistically, one of the most underachieving managers in the division’s history.

He has more than twice as many league defeats to wins, 13-6. In his reign, losing has become normalised. United have only won three of 21 league matches against teams who will be in the top flight next season, taking a mere 14 points. Nor are the results unflattering: United can contrive to look inferior to virtually anyone else. They were even the worse side in the first 75 minutes at home to Southampton.

They struggle to score under Amorim, failing to find the net in 10 of those 25 matches. They have lost seven of 12 at home, including to the teams currently 15th, 14th, 12th, 10th and ninth. Amorim’s team can produce shows of spirit, with late goals, but can also look anaemic. They tend to be slow starters. Over the course of his tenure, Crystal Palace have taken 18 more points, a relegation-threatened Wolves who sent an SOS to a Portuguese manager who plays 3-4-3 11 more.

Look beyond the numbers and a mixed start to a managerial tenure can sometimes offer encouragement that better times lie ahead. Have United seen enough? Bruno Fernandes has been brilliant, but there are times when he was for Ten Hag or Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Amad Diallo has improved under Amorim, but too few others have. Many a player has had a moment – some of them in Europe or the FA Cup – without truly excelling. A year ago, Alejandro Garnacho, Kobbie Mainoo and Rasmus Hojlund were regarded as the crown jewels. Each has regressed under Amorim, at times alarmingly; perhaps none would be in his preferred side at the start of next season.

There have been occasions when patterns of play are visible, hints of what Amorim’s gameplan is, but not enough. And, while Amorim has been unbending, a fundamental issue is an obdurate insistence on a 3-4-3 formation that is utterly unsuited to this squad. It may only be the ideal system for three of them and Harry Maguire, Mason Mount and Patrick Dorgu are, respectively, ageing, injury-prone and willing but not good enough. That 3-4-3 can leave United either undermanned in the centre of midfield or the final third. Hard as Diogo Dalot and Noussair Mazraoui try, each is a better full-back than wing-back.

In attack, meanwhile, there is scant proof United’s goal-shy team have gained from Amorim’s decision to banish Marcus Rashford. With the Mancunian at Aston Villa, there has been a sympathetic school of thought towards Amorim, an argument that what, actually, could he do with these players?

Better, perhaps, for all the failings before his appointment. A squad acquired for a top-four budget – some £630m has been spent on transfers in three years, with a large wage bill – and which, for all their mistakes in the market, should be capable of a top-eight finish. United could instead end up 17th.

Amorim’s doom-laden prophecies have come to look accurate predictions. If they are not the worst team in United’s history, they are on course for the worst league finish in half a century. So if it should not be hard to finish slightly higher next year, the pertinent issue is if, under Amorim, United would improve enough.