Analysis by Dan Balz
President-elect Donald Trump will begin his second term stronger and more dominant as a player on the world stage than when he was sworn in eight years ago. The world that awaits him, however, is far different — and more threatening — than when he left the presidency four years ago.
Trump’s “America First” second-term focus purports to be principally on the home front. The deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants was one of his leading campaign pledges, and his initial appointments suggest he is serious about this priority. The proposal is fraught with practical and political questions.
Dealing with the domestic economy through tax and spending cuts and regulatory changes was another key promise. Polls suggest the economy — mostly inflation — counted more than other issues did in Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. But many economists have said that Trump’s economic agenda — tariffs and an extension of tax cuts — could lead to a new round of inflation and more debt. Deportations, too, would disrupt the economy.
Trump has also pledged to bring the civil service to heel. An initiative that includes cost-cutting and finding inefficiencies will be led by multibillionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk and onetime rival Vivek Ramaswamy. The two have grand ambitions and, seemingly, the president-elect’s blessing. Nonetheless, they face multiple challenges before they will be able to deliver more than symbolic changes.
Still, Trump could quickly be drawn into foreign policy challenges. He will confront a world of chaos and conflict: a prolonged war in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin more hostile than ever, and the Middle East still in turmoil after more than 15 months of warfare, with Iran weakened, Syria without Bashar al-Assad and Israel stronger militarily but scarred internationally because of its conduct in the war in Gaza.
China presents other challenges for Trump, who has threatened major new tariffs on a country with serious economic problems and growing military ambitions. As an indication of his intentions, Trump plans to populate his incoming administration with several China hawks. Meanwhile, governments of key U.S. allies in Europe, particularly France and Germany, are weakened, with right-wing, populist parties on the rise.
Trump prides himself as a dealmaker. His approach to foreign policy in his first term appeared to be more personal than strategic. He prefers dealing with autocrats rather than working with traditional alliances. In his second term, he probably will find it more difficult to work with the likes of Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and the leader who sent him what Trump called “love letters,” North Korea’s Kim Jong Un
Daniel Benjamin, president of the American Academy in Berlin, said one of the biggest changes since Trump was last in office is what he called “an axis of resistance,” which includes Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. “That is now a hard and fast reality,” Benjamin said.
As one former European diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations put it, “It’s not like the old Cold War, but you can see a global pattern of jostling and tension.” In that environment, Trump’s jousting adversaries are seen as less inclined to make short-term deals that benefit the incoming president.
“Trump’s old playbook involved making believe that, on any given day, he could strike an amazing deal with any of them and be the opposing leader’s best friend. Think back to that wacky personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un,” Benjamin said. “That won’t cut it now.”
Ivo Daalder, chief executive officer of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, said, “The big thing is that Russia is at war with the West.” He said Putin is focused on subjugating Ukraine, with the longer-term goal of regaining Russia’s strategic position that was lost at the end of the Cold War.
“That means Putin is a very different character,” Daalder said. “More isolated. More focused on a singular goal than he might have been when Trump last met with him.”
The war in Ukraine could become a first test for Trump, given the status on the battlefield there, the exhaustion of depleted Ukrainian forces and declining support in the United States, particularly among Republicans, for continued assistance to Kyiv.
Trump said during the campaign that he could strike a deal to end the war in a day, the kind of hyperbole for which he is famous. Reality is different. The worry among European analysts is that Putin will have maximalist demands and that Trump, eager to get an agreement, might concede too much.
Trump’s potential moves on Ukraine are a source of considerable concern among U.S. allies in Europe, who have been part of the coalition assembled initially by President Joe Biden and who have their own security issues depending on what happens. Will Trump sell out the Ukrainians with an agreement that essentially destroys their sovereignty? Could Ukraine be forced to give up territory, but in return for guarantees that would tie them to the West?
Trump has the opportunity to help remake the Middle East, but there are at least two big questions. First, to what extent will he give Israel a free hand in ways that Biden did not? Second, what will his posture be toward Iran? Will he see an opportunity for negotiation or take a very hard-line approach? His choice for Israel ambassador, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who is strongly pro-Israel, has been interpreted as a sign that he will yield more to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than Biden has.
Trump will come into office with some U.S. allies weakened and absorbed with internal problems. French President Emmanuel Macron has been dealt a series of political defeats in recent months. In Germany, the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz has collapsed, with new elections coming. South Korea’s government is in turmoil after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saw his deputy prime minister resign in protest and is deeply unpopular with the public.
In Germany and France, far-right parties are gaining strength, and Musk recently sparked controversy with an op-ed article calling the AfD (Alternative for Germany) that country’s “last spark for hope.” In Britain, Musk has been sharply critical of Prime Minister Keir Starmer and has flirted with the populist hard-right Reform Party. Party leader Nigel Farage, a Trump ally, has even appealed to Musk for financial support for his party.
Europeans will see Trump differently today than at the beginning of his last term. His second victory came as a surprise to many European analysts, and his agenda is now taken more seriously than ever. Trump’s hectoring of NATO is an ongoing concern, and the prospect of new tariffs is deeply worrying to America’s European allies.
Among foreign policy analysts, there is a sense that Trump comes to his second term better prepared to carry out his foreign policy priorities. And, they say, Trump begins with some clear assets to enhance his ability to shape events around the world but with perhaps less room for swagger. As Robin Niblett, a distinguished fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, noted, in a more dangerous world, “the cost of throwing his weight around could be greater.”
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