After a relentless pressure campaign by Democratic lawmakers, operatives, and donors, President Joe Biden has announced he is dropping out of the 2024 race. From being one of the youngest senators to becoming the oldest sitting president in US history, Biden’s remarkable political career has come to an abrupt end.
This move will exhilarate those in the Democratic Party who have been calling for a younger candidate, but it will also dishearten those who see this as a disenfranchisement of their primary vote.
When it comes to the Trump campaign, however, they might have the most panicked reaction out of everyone.
The most definitive depiction of this fear comes from The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta, who was embedded with the Trump campaign for six months. The “campaign is all but praying Joe Biden doesn’t drop out,” Alberta wrote, on July 10. Now their nightmares have come true.
In a conversation with Ezra Klein of The New York Times, Alberta said he saw firsthand the Trump campaign’s anxiety about Biden being replaced. “The Trump campaign, from day one, has been built not to run against a generic Democrat,” Alberta said. “It’s been built to run a very specific race against a very specific opponent in Joe Biden.”
Alberta detailed how Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, the advisers who have been co-managing Trump’s campaign, have tailored their operation — from their micro-targeting ad strategies to their broader messaging — to Biden. A change of the Democratic nominee throws that entire plan into disarray.
In the simplest of terms, Trump’s campaign was all about depicting their nominee as “strong” and Joe Biden as “weak.” They’ve been spreading clips of Biden that emphasize his age and seek to denigrate his mental acuity for months. Imagery of the aging Biden has been used as a visual representation of their claims that the president isn’t just physically weak, but is weak on the border, crime, and the economy.
In reality, border crossings are decreasing (in spite of Trump tanking the bipartisan border bill), crime is seeing historic declines, and the economy is, by most metrics, stronger than it has been in years. Trump has waged a fear-mongering campaign to try and depict Biden as too weak to contain an American chaos that doesn’t exist. But none of this matters. What matters is that, according to a lot of polls, it was working.
With Biden now out of the race and the issue of his age no longer a factor, Republicans will find it much more difficult to double down on weakness as the central Democratic flaw — especially considering Biden followed his announcement by quickly endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris is was the obvious frontrunner but she’s also a shrewd choice in this particular race: After all, who better to make the case against a convicted felon Republican nominee than a former prosecutor?
The Trump campaign will try to use incumbency against her and tie her to Biden’s record. But Harris will be going into the election with a running mate who is relatively untouched by this problem, and that will be a huge advantage. The new veep pick will be able to strategically distance themselves from controversial parts of Biden’s record — like his handling of the Israel-Hamas war — while embracing his remarkably successful domestic legislative and foreign policy accomplishments, like expanding NATO.
The excitement around a younger Democrat and the historic nature of the ticket with Kamala Harris at the top could also blunt many of the attacks from the Trump campaign. And it’s likely to bolster support among Black voters and young voters, which the Trump campaign has sought to pick off recently. For those hungry for change — which polling indicates is the majority of Americans — suddenly, the Democratic ticket is going to start to look very appealing. Trump’s supposedly revolutionary ticket, in contrast, now looks like a vote to return to the past.
The Trump campaign is in for a totally different race than they bargained for now. A younger Democrat who forcefully communicates a positive vision for the future while also effectively contrasting their approach with Trump’s extremist plans for his second term will change the dynamics entirely.
The push for President Biden to drop out of the race was a risky maneuver. It could be the masterstroke that cements his legacy and paves the way for a new nominee’s victory — or it could spectacularly backfire. Only time will tell.
However, history has taught us that authoritarians win when their opposition is divided. If Democrats are smart, they will now quickly unite around Harris and her chosen running mate so that they can shift the focus to Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 agenda.
Contrary to popular belief — and a lot of open pessimism on the left — the Trump campaign is beatable and easy to message against. Project 2025 has made Trump and Vance especially vulnerable: those detailed plans to reshape the federal government into a tool of the far-right are public for everyone to see.
The next few weeks ahead of the August Democratic convention will be marked by a flurry of activity as Democrats forcefully make the case for Harris. It will also be marked by panic within the Trump campaign as they grapple with the fact their entire campaign strategy has to be revamped.
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