Cameroon’s long-time opposition figure Issa Tchiroma Bakary declared an early and unexpected victory Tuesday in the country’s October 12 presidential election, directly challenging incumbent President Paul Biya and setting off a tense political standoff in one of Central Africa’s most enduring autocracies.
In a bold video statement posted to Facebook shortly after midnight, Tchiroma, 76, told his supporters that “our victory is clear, it must be respected.” The veteran politician, a former government spokesperson under Biya who broke ranks last year to mount his presidential campaign, urged the 92-year-old president to “accept the truth of the ballot box or plunge the country into turmoil.”
The declaration, made ahead of any official results from Elections Cameroon—the country’s electoral commission—and the Constitutional Council, signals a dramatic turn in a country where opposition voices have long been suppressed and electoral transparency remains under intense scrutiny.
The ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) quickly dismissed Tchiroma’s self-proclaimed win. Speaking on state television, CPDM Deputy Secretary-General Grégoire Owona stated bluntly: “Issa Tchiroma did not win. He is making baseless claims without access to full results from polling stations.”
Cameroon’s Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, had issued a stark warning just days before the election, threatening that any unauthorized release of election results would be treated as “high treason.” Under Cameroon’s electoral law, only the Constitutional Council has the authority to declare a winner. Official results are expected no later than October 26.
Tchiroma, however, vowed to publish his own detailed regional breakdown of vote counts in the coming days, urging international observers and civil society to verify the data independently. “We will not allow the will of the people to be buried in silence,” he said.
A former minister of employment and government spokesperson under Biya, Tchiroma’s break from the ruling establishment in 2024 signaled a rare defection from within Biya’s inner circle. His presidential campaign has drawn significant crowds across the country, bolstered by support from a broad coalition of smaller opposition parties and civic groups seeking change after more than four decades of rule by the same leader.
Observers say the election was one of Cameroon’s most contentious in recent memory—not necessarily because of fierce competition, but due to its symbolic weight. Biya, who has ruled since 1982, is the world’s oldest sitting president and one of its longest-serving leaders. His near-total grip on state institutions, including the judiciary and security forces, has led to accusations of authoritarianism and election manipulation.
Despite mounting health concerns and visible fatigue during his few public appearances, Biya refused to step aside, running on a platform of “peace and continuity.”
The opposition’s path to power remains steep. Cameroon’s electoral system uses a single-round plurality vote, meaning a candidate needs only a simple majority to win—an advantage long criticized for favoring incumbents.
Though Tchiroma has positioned himself as a unifying figure, the opposition remained fragmented going into the vote. Eleven candidates were on the ballot, and Biya’s most prominent rival, Maurice Kamto, was barred from running in August under what his party described as politically motivated legal challenges.
Still, voter turnout was reportedly higher than in recent elections, particularly in urban centers and western regions long hostile to Biya’s rule.
In 2018, Kamto also claimed victory just a day after polls closed, triggering widespread unrest. He was later arrested and detained for several months along with dozens of supporters, a move that drew international condemnation but failed to shift the political status quo.
Tchiroma’s declaration now raises the stakes in a country already grappling with multiple crises. Cameroon’s Anglophone regions remain embroiled in a secessionist conflict that has killed thousands and displaced over a million people since 2017. The economic fallout of the conflict, combined with corruption and a lack of public investment, has stunted development in the resource-rich nation.
Despite possessing vast oil reserves, timber, and minerals, Cameroon ranks low on most human development indicators. Frustration over economic stagnation and political inertia has deepened among the country’s 30 million citizens—half of whom are under the age of 25.
Analysts warn that a contested result could heighten instability if not managed through legal and diplomatic channels. “Cameroon is entering dangerous territory,” said Dr. Ernest Mbeng, a political science professor at the University of Yaoundé. “If the opposition refuses to back down and the government responds with force, we could see a repeat of 2018—or worse.”
International observers, including the African Union and EU monitors, have yet to issue formal statements on the conduct of the vote. The U.S. and France, both longtime partners of Cameroon, have urged calm and called for transparency.
For now, Tchiroma’s gamble—claiming victory before the system acknowledges him—has thrust Cameroon into an uncertain political limbo. Whether it results in a genuine transition or a crackdown will depend largely on what happens in the days to come.
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