Gabon’s military leader cemented his grip on power by winning the country’s first presidential election since he overthrew the government two years ago.
Brice Oligui Nguema, who campaigned on a pledge to end youth unemployment by diversifying the oil-dependent OPEC nation, garnered 90.4% of ballots in the April 12 vote, according to preliminary results announced by the Minister of Interior and Security Hermann Immongault on Sunday. Alain Claude Bilie-By-Nze, a former prime minister and Nguema’s main challenger, got 3.2%, he said. Voter turnout was 70.4%.
Nguema, 50, ousted his cousin President Ali Bongo in August 2023, ending the family’s more than half-century rule of the central African nation. Saturday’s election took place well within the two-year timeframe that he’d pledged to return the country to civilian rule, wrongfooting the opposition, according to Douglas Yates, a professor of political science at the American Graduate School in Paris.
“He announced the elections six months earlier than the transition arrangement allowed for,” he said, leaving opponents little time to coalesce around a single candidate. Nguema also resigned his office as general in March and presented himself as a civilian, making him eligible to run as a candidate, Yates said.
The president-elect campaigned on a pledge to focus on Gabon’s “unemployed youth, poor infrastructure and high cost of living.” Inflation in the country of 2.4 million people averaged 2.1% last year, while youth unemployment is estimated at 36%, according to the World Bank.
Youth unemployment has declined since 2020 but remained high at more than 36%.
He plans to add more value domestically to the country’s oil, timber and manganese resources in order to expand job opportunities and grow gross domestic product by 7% annually.
Nguema has also vowed to attract more foreign investment to Gabon, in contrast to the steps he’s taken over the past two years to increase the state’s role in the economy and strengthen its hold over natural resources in the world’s second-most forested nation.
Last year, the junta used its preemptive rights to buy shares in Assala Energy, preventing its sale to Paris-based Etablissements Maurel & Prom SA by the Carlyle Group. It also took controlling stake in the nation’s timber company, which is partly managed by Dubai-based Arise IIP. And last month, Tullow Oil Plc reached an agreement to sell its Gabon assets to the state-oil company.
Bond investors will scrutinize the incoming administration’s plans to address Gabon’s ballooning budget deficit. Its dollar bonds have weakened since January, when Fitch Ratings lowered its long-term foreign-debt rating to CCC from CCC+, citing the government’s inability to secure new funding from the International Monetary Fund before the elections. The fund suspended a $553 million program after the 2023 coup.
“Investors will focus on the fiscal adjustment steps that will likely be required for an IMF program,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Plc. “A revised budget would likely incorporate the fiscal adjustment framework agreed with the IMF.”
The Washington-based lender expects Gabon’s budget shortfall to increase to 6.5% of GDP this year, compared with an estimated 3.9% in 2024. Public debt is seen climbing to 80% of GDP from about 73%.
Gabon rank among Africa’s wealthiest countries with a per capita income of $7,800, according to the World Bank. Like many oil-rich nations, its wealth hasn’t translated into inclusive growth. A third of its residents are considered poor, living on less than $6.85 per day.
Discussion about this post