ECOWAS activates standby force for possible intervention in Niger

Speaking after an emergency Ecowas summit in Abuja, President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria warned that “no option is taken off the tables including the use of force as the last resort”.

“If we don’t do it, no one else will do it for us. We remain steadfast in our commitment to supporting Niger towards peaceful and democratic stability in the country,” Tinubu said.

After Tinubu spoke, an official communique was read out, which included a resolution asking the bloc’s defence officials to “activate the Ecowas standby force with all its elements immediately”.

Another resolution spoke of ordering “the deployment of the Ecowas standby force to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger”, immediately followed by another that spoke of restoring such order “through peaceful means”.

Earlier in the day Tinubu had appeared to step away from the imminent use of force despite a deadline expiring last weekend, which analysts said strongly suggested that the regional grouping was reluctant to go to war.

In his opening speech Tinubu said “diplomatic negotiations and dialogue” should be “the bedrock” of the Ecowas response to the crisis and barely mentioned the earlier threat to send thousands of troops into Niger after a coup d’état there by disgruntled army officers on 26 July.

“We must engage all parties involved, including the coup leaders, in earnest discussions to convince them to relinquish power and reinstate President Bazoum. It is our duty to exhaust all avenues of engagement to ensure a swift return to constitutional governance in Niger,” Tinubu had said.

The mixed messages from Ecowas will do little reassure analysts, observers and international powers worried by the prospect of a chaotic conflict in the heart of the deeply troubled and strategical important Sahel.

Niger is key to western development and counter-terrorist efforts across the Sahel. These have already been seriously undermined by two successive coups by Mali, now ruled by a military regime, while a recent coup in Burkina Faso has brought a 35-year-old army captain to power.

Tinubu had initially made a pledge to use military means to send a strong signal to other potential plotters of coups in the region. But the practical difficulties and expense of such an intervention, support from Mali and Burkina Faso for the new regime in Niamey, as well as concern among other Ecowas members, appear to have combined to inspire a new approach.

In his first speech on Thursday, Tinubu stressed diplomatic efforts to placate countries to the north of Niger known to be apprehensive about military intervention, and emphasised a need for a “cohesive and united stance regarding the ongoing circumstances in Niger thus showing a collaborative and concerted approach among African nations”.

Analysts said the credibility of Ecowas had been damaged.

“Tinubu got quite a lot of backlash in his own country and in the region. They don’t want to increase any differences between Ecowas members … and also want to distance themselves from the fact that they put down a deadline that was not very realistic and hasn’t been followed up,” said Nina Wilén, director of the Africa programme at the Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels.

The rebellious soldiers in Niger initially claimed they seized power because they could do a better job of protecting the nation from surging jihadi violence, before pivoting to a more populist narrative focused on alleged exploitation of the country’s resources by France, the former colonial power. On Wednesday, they again accused France of trying to destabilise the country, violate its closed airspace and discredit the new regime. France has dismissed the allegations as unfounded.

Most analysts and diplomats have said the takeover resulted from a power struggle between the president and the head of the presidential guard, Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani.

Bazoum, elected in 2021 with a 55% share of votes, moved to marginalise a series of senior officers this year and is thought to have been planning to fire Tchiani.

The president has been held at the presidential palace in Niamey with his wife and son since the coup.

The US has expressed deep concern for Bazoum after his party said he and his family were running out of food and living under increasingly dire conditions.

He has not been seen in public since the coup, although sources close to him say that has refused to resign. The family is living without electricity and has only rice and canned goods left to eat, according to a close adviser, who said Bazoum remains in good health for now.

Bazoum’s political party issued a statement confirming the president’s living conditions and said the family also was without running water.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, spoke with Bazoum on Tuesday about recent diplomatic efforts, the state department said, and Blinken “emphasised that the safety and security of President Bazoum and his family are paramount”.

Niger’s new military rulers have taken steps to entrench their power and rejected international efforts to mediate.

The junta has refused to admit mediation teams from the UN, the African Union and the Ecowas, citing “evident reasons of security in this atmosphere of menace”.

On Monday, a new prime minister, civilian economist Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, was appointed. He is a former economy and finance minister who left office after a previous coup in 2010 toppled the government at the time.

“The establishment of a government is significant and signals, at least to the population, that they have a plan in place, with support from across the government,” said Aneliese Bernard, a former state department official who specialised in African affairs and is now director of Strategic Stabilization Advisors, a risk advisory group.