For 25 years, President Bola Tinubu has influenced Lagos politics, controlling both the legislature and executive. But his decade-long backing of Speaker Mudashiru Obasa has sparked a rebellion within his APC party.
As scores of security officials stormed the Lagos State Assembly complex to seal off offices and cordon off the entrance to the legislative chambers, many Nigerians assumed that the lawmakers would be intimidated and simply return home. However, what happened was the exact opposite.
About 36 of the 40 lawmakers pushed back the heavily armed officials and forced their way into the legislative chambers to hold a plenary session. Not only did the lawmakers reject calls for the impeachment of new Speaker Mojisola Meranda, they also unanimously passed a vote of confidence in her.
‘That is democracy’
Meranda, who insiders say had planned to resign due to pressure from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party, burst into tears as she was overwhelmed by the support.
“If we feel the [former] speaker is not representing us or the people well, we have the right to elect a new leader. That is democracy. This does not justify harassment or an assault on our legislative process,” said Sabur Oluwa, one of the lawmakers in the chamber.
Also addressing the house, Majority Leader Temitope Adewale expressed sadness over the incident and called on President Bola Tinubu to swiftly intervene.
“I am pained and sad. This is the same house our leader and president had laboured for to ensure that it holds the tenets of democracy today,” Adewale said.
But the secret police said in a statement that they were only at the House of Assembly on the invitation of the lawmakers who feared that ousted speaker Mudashiru Obasa was planning to forcefully reinstate himself.
The secret police’s claim was quickly dismissed by the lawmakers who questioned the sealing of their offices if indeed the intention was to forestall violence.
For now, the lawmakers have adjourned the plenary indefinitely, but the tension remains high.
Obasa’s confidence
One thing that continues to scare the lawmakers is Obasa’s confidence. Despite having the support of only three lawmakers in the house, Obasa is confident of his return as speaker and his aides tell The Africa Report that he continues to enjoy Tinubu’s support.
The apparent partisanship of the secret police, which answers directly to Tinubu, further reinforces this argument.
Since his ouster, Obasa has been holding rallies and street processions, especially in Agege where he comes from. He has still refused to vacate the official mansion of the speaker.
Even so, he has filed a suit in court seeking his immediate reinstatement for what he describes as an “illegal impeachment”.
In the suit, Obasa argues that the 13 January plenary session where he was impeached was not properly convened because the house was still in recess. He says even though two-thirds of the members sanctioned his impeachment, the proceedings remain unconstitutional.
There are fears that he would embark on a revenge mission in the event that he is reinstated. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu who is also not on good terms with the ousted speaker is said to be uneasy about his possible return.
Tinubu’s headache
Although Tinubu has refused to make any public comment on the matter since the crisis began in January, multiple media reports suggest that he is not comfortable with the new speaker, Meranda, who emerged without his support. The president’s allies believe retaining Meranda could set a bad precedent.
Nigeria’s first lady and former lawmaker Oluremi Tinubu is widely believed to be supporting Obasa as well even though the house has recently come to her defence.
Several sources said that Tinubu had ordered a party organ known as the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC) to prevail on the lawmakers to pick another speaker, but the lawmakers blatantly refused, insisting that it must be Meranda.
Such rebellion is unprecedented in the 4th Republic, and Tinubu must therefore tread carefully, analysts say, especially because he lost the presidential election in Lagos in 2023.
“The option available to the president is to hearken to the voice of his people. The lawmakers have [said] they want Meranda,” says APC leader Fouad Oki, who also tells The Africa Report that the incident should be a wake-up call to the dynamics of Lagos politics.
“In 2023, we lost the election for the first time in 24 years. This means the APC is vulnerable and needs to tread carefully,” Oki said, adding that Meranda is a member of the royal family of Lagos and removing her could have unintended consequences. He is therefore pleading with Tinubu to accept her.
However the ousted speaker, Obasa, who is a grassroots politician, is also seen as vital to Tinubu’s political ambition and thus cannot be sidelined.
Attempts by GAC members to meet with Tinubu two weeks ago proved futile as the president left for France. Now, they are seeking to meet him again.
“We are waiting for the president and whatever he says will determine the next step. But the majority of the members who were elected have also made their position known as well,” Olorunfunmi Bashorun, a GAC member, tells The Africa Report.
The president’s action or inaction continues to have consequences on the crisis. This is now effectively playing into the hands of the opposition.
“Tinubu should focus on bringing Nigeria out of the mess he plunged the country into, rather than interfering in state matters,” said opposition politician and former vice-president Atiku Abubakar, who came second in the last election.
However, an aide to Tinubu told The Africa Report that people were just using his name to push their agendas. He said the president would meet with the political leaders in Lagos soon in order to resolve all grievances.
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