For North Africa, crisis is actually good

As security threats escalate and irregular migration intensifies amid the spillovers from widening geopolitical rifts, the governments in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Morocco are increasingly leveraging the new opportunities arising from a tide of convergent challenges to entrench themselves and the power and influence they wield.

Algeria’s strategic significance has soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The ensuing energy crisis in Europe transformed Algeria from a regional player into a crucial supplier, with Italian and German delegations rushing to Algiers to secure gas deals as an alternative to Russian energy supplies. In 2022 alone, exports of natural gas from Algeria to Italy surged by 20 percent, demonstrating the country’s newfound prominence.

These agreements not only mitigated some of Europe’s energy woes, they also bolstered Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s precarious presidency of the country, providing him with substantial geopolitical leverage. While Algeria’s government faced criticism for clamping down on journalists and activists, the indispensable role it has played in European energy security has resulted in increased Western favor.
Capitalizing on this geopolitical shift Algiers has adopted a more assertive foreign policy, proactively engaging in its long-standing rivalry with Morocco. Beyond the energy exports, Algeria is also channeling its windfall revenues into domestic initiatives to create jobs, improve water security, and lay the foundations for overdue economic diversification.

For instance, the Algerian government has implemented new policies designed to stimulate private sector growth in an attempt to tackle unemployment, which stands at more than 20 percent for women and just under 10 percent for men.

Additionally, recent amendments allowing the deployment of its military forces in other countries signal a broader intention and strategy to play a more pivotal role in regional stability, particularly as part of Arab League and African Union peacekeeping missions.

This balanced approach between a strengthening of domestic policies and assertion of influence abroad reveals Algeria’s strategic use of crises to redefine its role both regionally and globally.

In Tunisia, President Kais Saied continues to exploit an escalating migration crisis to increase his political leverage. It is an extension of a similar gambit Saied employed to capitalize on European fears of a heavily indebted Tunisia spiraling into economic collapse, which allowed his regime to extract concessional funding while pushing back against International Monetary Fund demands for austerity and stringent reforms.

The EU, in its desperation to curb migrant flows, has offered substantial financial aid to Tunisia, with little oversight. This transactional relationship gives Saied additional financial support, with few or no strings attached, that temporarily eases the acute economic distress in his country, characterized by soaring unemployment rates and severe shortages of fuel and other basic staples.

Beyond this financial aid, Saied is also exploiting widening geopolitical rifts in an attempt to assert his control and gain legitimacy. By pivoting toward Russia, China and Iran, he anticipates the receipt of additional funding and diplomatic cover that is not conditional on striving for or preserving the democratization of Tunisia and the institutions that would safeguard it. These alliances are especially pertinent as the country edges closer to a pivotal presidential election in October.

In Libya, the fragmented landscape of governance is receiving renewed attention amid the global distractions as a result of the self-interests of external actors, most notably Turkiye and Russia. The administration of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh has strategically leveraged the EU’s need for alternative sources of energy post-Ukraine by promising increased oil production to help shore up European energy security as imports from Russia dwindle. However, this engagement is fraught with allegations of corruption and mismanagement that compromise its credibility.

Meanwhile, the rival government in the east of the country is serving as a gateway for Russia to deeply embed itself in Libya, purportedly aiding Kremlin-backed initiatives such as the circumvention of international sanctions and the facilitation of fuel-smuggling operations.

Furthermore, Libya’s borders have become a conduit for sprawling illicit economies, which are magnifying the ramifications of the migrant crisis. As European border policies focus more on deterrence than resolution, Libyan elites are taking advantage of the country’s porous borders to sustain and expand these underground economies.

Morocco’s adept navigation of global crises exemplifies the ways in which nations can capitalize on turbulent times to further their own strategic objectives. For instance the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with Israel, enabled Rabat to enhance its international security and intelligence ties, especially with the US. Such alliances have brought with them access to advanced technology and enhanced defense capabilities, tilting regional power dynamics in Morocco’s favor.

While normalization with Israel risked alienating a populace among which pro-Palestinian sentiment is strong, Rabat simply opted to recalibrate its foreign policy in anticipation that the strategic gains would eventually outweigh any domestic disapproval.

Simultaneously, Morocco’s pursuit of an independent migration strategy is helping the country shake up traditional EU-North African dependency dynamics. Its national strategies related to migration contrast heavily with more heavy-handed EU approaches elsewhere in the region, by striking a balance between deterrence of irregular migration and the protection of migrants’ rights. In return, Morocco gains a soft-power boost on the African continent and avoids the stigma of being seen to do the EU’s “dirty work.”

In summary, the turbulent global environment is providing North African countries with substantial geopolitical currency. Whether through energy deals, strategic alliances or migration agreements, governments in the region are fully committed to leveraging the effects of global instability to entrench themselves domestically and project influence abroad.

• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. X: @HafedAlGhwell
• Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Time Africa’s point of view