Following eight coups in two years that have resulted in a sustained decline in French influence, the news, though no doubt a significant diplomatic victory for Morocco, also reestablished the importance of France in its historical area of interest. Morocco has maintained that it has a legitimate claim on Western Sahara since the latter gained independence from Spain in 1975. The territory, which is spread over 250,000 sq. km, with more than 1,000 km of strategically important Atlantic coast, is of great historical importance to Morocco. Located in the country’s south, it fell under the remit of various Moroccan kingdoms, from the Almoravids to the Saadian dynasty. Various Saharan tribes, such as the Reguibat, the Tekna and the Oulad Delim, pledged allegiance to successive Moroccan sultans, given their cooperation in matters of politics, spirituality, and trans-Saharan trade.
The territory eventually came under Spanish and French control in the late 19th century. Since the departure of European powers from the Maghreb in the 20th century, modern-day Morocco has asserted its claim over the territory, and held France and Spain responsible for the border discrepancies in the region. France’s recognition of this today is, therefore, a seminal acceptance of its historical responsibility. Following six decades of reticence on the matter, the French move is equally an acknowledgement of Morocco’s tactical importance for France given the former’s geostrategic location as a neighbor of Europe and the gateway to Africa. Amid the wider collapse of strategic influence in the region, its bold reentrance into the Saharan issue has emboldened France at a time of diplomatic decay.
Joining the US, Spain, and Israel in recognizing Morocco’s claim is a bid by France to coordinate its North Africa foreign policy with that of its Western allies. The UK and Germany, too, have become increasingly vocal about the validity of Morocco’s autonomy plan, indicating imminent diplomatic support for the Kingdom. Morocco’s growing independence in economic and foreign policies has been part of a wider multilateralism building support among the international community independent of France. Moroccan rejection of French aid following a devastating earthquake in the Atlas Mountains last October was a bold display of the country’s ability to rely on itself and other international partners. Having put diplomatic relations between the two capitals on hold, Morocco illustrated its importance to France in a region of military rule where France’s influence has dramatically decreased. The Saharan decision played into this situation, providing a geopolitical portal for France to remain relevant.
After decades of shuffling between its two former colonies, Morocco and Algeria, France has decisively supported the former. France’s traditional regional policies have led to a zero-sum game, with support for one translating into opposition toward the other. Thus, despite the importance of Algerian gas exports to France owing to the war in Ukraine, France’s Saharan decision is reflective of Morocco’s growing role in Africa and internationally. Strong diplomatic relations with Morocco are crucial at a time when France is faced with the forced evacuation of French troops and diplomats elsewhere in the region. In this context, France recognizes the value of political and economic stability in Morocco as a means to securing its own strategic and economic future in the region.
The recent diplomatic achievement will allow Morocco and its international partners to further realize the economic potential of its southern territory. The Western Sahara has some of the world’s largest reserves of phosphate, a key component of fertilizer. Given the surge in demand for Moroccan phosphate following supply chain disruptions due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Morocco has actively enhanced its capacity to produce and export the product to global markets anxious to ensure food security.
The Western Sahara’s geography is also critical to the development of robust renewable energy infrastructure that could provide a steady supply of electricity to Morocco’s African and European neighbors. France has expressed interest in investing in these high-potential economic sectors in Western Sahara. While Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne in February encouraged Moroccan investments in the Western Sahara, in April Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire confirmed France’s readiness to fund a 3GW power cable between Casablanca and Dakhla.
France’s latest decision will allow Morocco to enhance its position as a strategic gateway to the African continent. The Western Sahara’s geostrategic location connecting Europe with sub-Saharan Africa makes it an integral part of the region’s future transportation infrastructure, such as the proposed high-speed railway tunnel between Spain and Morocco, the 7,000 km Nigeria Morocco Gas Pipeline Project, and improvements to the Trans-Sahara Highway. It will also lead to the development of Dakhla Atlantic Port, one of the largest in the region, and an important hub for trade and maritime fishing. These developments will augment Morocco’s role as an economic powerhouse in the region.
While the UN and the broader international community are yet to officially recognize Morocco’s claim, French recognition is a notable achievement for Morocco given the recent rift in diplomatic relations. With more than 40 countries having established consular diplomatic representation in Western Sahara, there is a fast-growing international acceptance of the Moroccan claim. France’s decision shows that it appreciates the integral role of Morocco in working toward a constructive solution for Western Sahara. This is paramount as the decades-long territorial dispute has hampered economic and social development in the Maghreb, the least economically integrated region in the world.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council region. X: @Moulay_Zaid
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