From flood to famine: Rainfall chaos fuels Africa’s drought crisis

Climate change is intensifying water scarcity across Africa while also exacerbating droughts. Despite a brief uptick in rainfall across the continent, critical water shortages persist, particularly in major river basins such as the Zambezi.

The diminished rainfall over the past year has led to reduced river flows, triggering severe ecological, economic, and humanitarian impacts. This trend is projected to continue.

“We had a very beautiful forest, very beautiful wetlands, but because of several pressures, these areas were all degraded. By the time I grew up, I had at least seen that there was already sugarcane. However, the swamps and rivers remained intact. We used to have rain wash us every day at 2. At such a time, we should have been having rain, and then there was to be more rain. You would find we would have very few months of no rain,” said Robert Atugonza, a sugarcane farmer.

Africa’s average surface temperatures have risen steadily across all regions, with Southern Africa experiencing the highest increases. According to the World Meteorological Organization, projections indicate a rise of up to +4°C by 2050.

Rainfall patterns are becoming increasingly unpredictable, with the Sahel experiencing more rainfall recently, while Central and Southern Africa are facing significant drying trends.

“The climate crisis is a human rights crisis. Rising temperatures, rising seas, floods, droughts, and wildfires threaten our rights to life, health, a clean, healthy and sustainable environment, and much more. The heat wave we are currently experiencing here highlights the importance of adaptation measures, without which human rights would be severely impacted, Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said.

Sea levels along Africa’s coasts have risen by approximately 20 cm since 1900 and are projected to increase by an additional 35–50 cm by 2050, posing a threat to coastal communities.

Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, and floods, have increased in frequency by a factor of two or three since 1990 and are expected to intensify further. This has all been blamed on the continuous use of fossil fuels.

“We need to move away from fossil fuels much faster and completely if we want to avoid ever more extreme events that also will reach the limits of what societies can adapt to and not get distracted by discussions of whether it’s too late to do this. It’s not. Or by focusing on things like carbon dioxide removal, which will not work if we do not have the transition away from fossil fuels first,” said Friederike Otto, the Imperial College of London climate scientist.

Central, northwest, and northeast Africa face worsening conditions due to ongoing droughts, extreme heat, and above-average temperatures. These climate-driven factors threaten agriculture, ecosystems, and hydropower, increasing the region’s vulnerability to the climate crisis.