By Dan De Luce, Courtney Kube, Monica Alba and Abigail Williams
Israel has vowed a hard-hitting response against Iran after Tehran launched a barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.
With its vastly superior air force and Iran’s relatively weak air defenses, Israel could hit a wide range of targets in Iran if it wanted to, including military and intelligence sites, senior commanders, oil terminals and refineries or even nuclear sites. Israel would also be likely to get a helping hand from U.S. intelligence collected via satellites and other sources.
“There are so many things they can hit, and they’re going to be able to hit all those with great effectiveness. Iran’s not going to be able to stop them,” said a former senior U.S. military officer with experience in the region.
But Israel will have to balance the potential reaction from Iran, including the risk that Tehran could choose to launch attacks on Arab Gulf states that host U.S. air bases or choose to plant sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes.
Here is a brief look at the possible targets, according to analysts, former senior U.S. military and intelligence officers and current and former officials:
Military
The most likely targets would be any site or unit associated with Iran’s missile assault on Israel this week, including command and control centers, missile launchpads, fueling sites and even commanders overseeing the country’s ballistic missile arsenal.
Israel also could go after intelligence centers, often located at military bases, in response to an apparent Iranian attempt to strike the headquarters of Israel’s Mossad spy agency Tuesday.
In addition, Israel could choose to bomb other military targets, such as air defense systems and drone sites, in part to safeguard Israeli warplanes.
The U.S. would be likely to view strikes on military targets as proportionate and as posing a reduced risk of civilian casualties, current and former U.S. officials said.
Energy
On whether the U.S. would support Israel’s hitting oil facilities in Iran, President Joe Biden did not say whether this administration backed the idea.
“We’re in discussion on that,” Biden said. “I think — I think that would be a little — anyway.” Biden also said, “There’s nothing going to happen today.”
Oil prices rose after his comments.
According to current and former senior military and national security officials, Israel could opt to bomb Iran’s oil infrastructure, which is the country’s economic lifeline. If Israel decides to go that route, it remains an open question what parts of Iran’s oil sector Israel would try to attack.
One option would be to hit gasoline refineries that mainly serve Iran’s domestic market, possibly limiting the impact on the global economy. The Persian Gulf Star plant in Bandar Abbas is the most important domestic source of gasoline for Iran, having met about 40% of the country’s needs last year, according to industry analysts. Such a strike would be likely to cause economic upheaval for Iran, which is already struggling to manage a troubled economy squeezed by years of U.S. and international sanctions.
Or Israel could pursue a broader assault that would encompass oil and gas facilities over a wide area, including terminals used to ship oil out of the country. Such an approach would mean hitting Kharg oil terminal, located on an island off Iran’s northwestern coast, which handles more than 90% of the country’s oil exports.
To further damage Iran’s economy, Israel could also go after petrochemical plants and electric power stations.
An attack on Iran’s oil industry could drive up oil prices and jolt the global economy. In response to such an attack, Iran could decide to plant sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Nuclear
Biden said this week that the U.S. opposed any strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. But Israel has long warned of the danger of Iran’s developing nuclear weapons, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might decide that the moment is ripe to strike at the nuclear sites before Tehran’s program advances any further.
The main sites include uranium enrichment centers in Fordow and Natanz, which are both deep underground under layers of rock and concrete.
There is also a large nuclear center outside Isfahan that oversees a number of activities for the nuclear program, including the production of centrifuge parts and uranium metal, which can be used to build the core of an atomic bomb. Other potential targets include a partially built heavy water reactor plant in Khondab, as well as research centers in Tehran.
A study in April examining a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear program, published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, concluded that the only way to penetrate the harder targets underground would involve large U.S. bombers carrying massive American-made GBU-57A/B bombs weighing 13.2 tons.
In April, in retaliation for a previous Iranian missile attack, Israel bombed an Iranian military installation near the Isfahan nuclear technology center, sending a signal to Tehran that it could reach its nuclear sites.
Israel has refueling tankers for its attack planes, surveillance drones and sophisticated F-35 fighter jets, theoretically enabling it to strike at Iran’s nuclear sites without having to rely on American aircraft. But it is likely Israel could not inflict the level of damage that U.S. bombers could achieve.
“I don’t think they can actually destroy it. It’s a hard target,” the former senior military officer said.
Iran’s nuclear program most likely would be set back but not wiped out in an Israeli attack. Iran also has developed the technical know-how to develop nuclear weapons apart from whatever physical damage a military strike would cause.
Iran denies it has ever sought to build nuclear weapons and says its nuclear program is designed for civilian purposes. A 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers limited Iran’s nuclear project in return for an easing of economic sanctions. President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the deal in 2018, and since then Iran has flouted its restrictions on uranium enrichment.
Iran has scaled back the so-called breakout time needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon from at least a year to a matter of weeks. Iran would then need to produce a nuclear warhead, and it is not clear how long that would take.
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