Hamas leader Sinwar ‘may have left orders to kill all hostages if he died’

“It is a moment of either opportunity or a moment of doom,” said Gershon Baskin, the negotiator who oversaw the release of Sinwar, together with 1,026 other Palestinian prisoners, in 2011 in return for the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shilat.

“A moment of doom because there are rumours that Sinwar instructed people holding hostages that, should he be killed, they should kill their hostages,” he added.

Sinwar was killed last Wednesday in a chance encounter with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in southern Gaza.

At the time of his death, 101 Israeli hostages were being held captive in the enclave, at least 60 of whom were thought to be alive.

Their predicament may be further complicated by the fact that the Hamas fighters who hold them are now being led by Sinwar’s younger brother Muhammad.

Mr Baskin said it was not possible to confirm the rumours of a kill order or, if it existed, whether it had already been enforced.

However, he said the rumour should be taken “seriously”, citing the six hostages who were killed in late August after the IDF closed in on the tunnel in which they were being held.

“We saw the six hostages killed when Israel was entering the tunnel. That could be the case now. We just don’t know,” he said.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, may have been reflecting that fear when he said after Sinwar’s death last week that Israel would offer financial reward and safe passage to anyone in Gaza who helped release the hostages.

Mr Baskin, who has been in touch with Hamas functionaries for over two decades and whose wife’s cousin was abducted and murdered by Palestinian terrorists, said Sinwar’s death could pave the way for a ceasefire and successful hostage exchange.

However, this would be dependent on the US making full use of the economic and military leverage it had over Israel, he added.

“It’s a moment of opportunity where Israel should be issuing a very clear call that anyone who’s holding a hostage that releases them will be given free passage for themselves and their family out of Gaza to another country, as well as a lot of money.

“In order to encourage them to do that, Israel should also be reaching out to Egypt and Qatar and tell them to renew the negotiations quickly, not on the deal that’s been negotiated without success for almost four months, but on a deal that would bring the hostages home quicker and would obviously require Israel to end the war.

“Unfortunately, that probably won’t happen unless president [Joe] Biden weighs in very heavily and makes sure that Netanyahu agrees to end the war, because without that, Netanyahu won’t end the war.”

Mr Baskin said he was confident that the US had the necessary “leverage” to force a ceasefire but added: “The question is, if they’re willing to use it.”

Asked what such a US move might look like, Mr Baskin said it would need to be publicly visible, rather than behind closed doors, but that threatening an arms embargo was not necessary.

“You don’t have to even go that far. You know, James Baker, when he was secretary of state, all he had to do was say: ‘This is my phone number. Call me when you want to talk.’ That was enough to shake Israeli society.

“And [Henry] Kissinger used the word ‘reassessment’, and that led to the election of [peacemaker] Yitzhak Rabin and the downfall of Yitzhak Shamir.”

Current options to apply pressure might include a temporary suspension of the strategic dialogue between the US and Israel, a pause in the training of Israeli military pilots at US military bases in North America or a review of the tax position of US organisations that raise funds for Israel.

“These are the kinds of things they could look at. The relationship is so deep and so wide. There are so many things that the Americans could pull out of their hat,” Mr Baskin said.

He added that the timing of any such move could come quickly. President Biden has a strong motive to secure a ceasefire ahead of the US election to secure a positive “legacy” and bury the moniker “Genocide Joe”. Hamas is also likely to formally announce Sinwar’s successor this week, he added.

Mr Baskin emerged as Israel’s main Hamas negotiator when Mr Shalit was abducted by Hamas’s military wing in an attack on an Israeli outpost in 2006.

Israel’s leaders were initially reluctant to agree to its demands, but by the time Mr Shalit was freed in 2011, public opinion had overwhelmingly shifted in favour of a deal.

Yet the price Israel paid was steep. Out of the 1,207 Palestinian prisoners released at the time, including Sinwar, more than 300 were convicted of killing Israeli citizens.

Four of them were responsible for the abduction and murder of Mr Baskin’s wife’s cousin.

Mr Baskin told The Telegraph that Israel would once again need to exchange Palestinian prisoners for hostages if a deal was to be done, and should not hesitate to do so.

He said it was a mistake to think that the release of prisoners – even people like Sinwar – was the real security problem for Israel.

“Oct 7 wasn’t because of Sinwar. Oct 7 was because we’re occupying another people for 56 years without enabling them to ever believe that they’re going to be free, or locking two million people in Gaza under poverty and telling them that they’ll never be able to leave Gaza. This is what led to Oct 7,” he added.

Mr Baskin said he hoped Oct 7 would ultimately force Israelis to “confront the fallacy of basing its policies, vis-à-vis the Palestinians, on military force”.

“For Palestinians, the lessons learned must, first and foremost, be that there should no longer be an armed struggle as part of their liberation strategy.

“Right or wrong, the armed struggle primarily brings death and destruction.”

He added: “Every person living between the river and the sea must have the same right to the same rights.

“From that principle, we can move forward. Freedom, self-determination, security, and dignity for all.”