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Home » News » How China will make or break Trump’s bromance with Elon Musk

How China will make or break Trump’s bromance with Elon Musk

Could the Tesla tycoon be a new Kissinger, helping broker deal between Washington and Beijing?

December 20, 2024
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Dozens of yellow and red robotic arms move swiftly and silently as they assemble the latest range of Tesla electric cars.

A white sheet of spray paint is then applied before the vehicles move to the final stage of manufacturing ready to be rolled out of Elon Musk’s gigafactory in Shanghai.

Welcome to China’s first fully foreign-owned factory.

The vast building manufactures half of Tesla’s famous electric vehicles (EVs) and has become key to Mr Musk’s global expansion.

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But his plans now face a major test in the form of his new close friend, Donald Trump.

Mr Trump, who has been dining regularly in his Mar-a-Lago club with Mr Musk, see video below, as he assembles his Cabinet, is on the cusp of launching a major trade war with China

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The president-elect threatened up to 60 per cent tariffs on all China imports during the campaign trail. Last week he threatened 10 per cent “additional” tariffs on China if it didn’t stop fentanyl smuggling.

Experts have begun to speculate whether China will be the thing that breaks the pair’s growing friendship.

Dexter Roberts, from the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub research body, says: “Musk has huge skin in the game when it comes to US-China relations and he doesn’t need an angry China to lash out at his company because they are upset with Trump.”

Mr Musk has played a key role in Mr Trump’s return to the White House, pumping millions of dollars into the Republican’s campaign and serving as his policy adviser.

Following Mr Trump’s sweeping election victory on Nov 5, Mr Musk posted on the social media platform X, which he owns and has been turned into a mouthpiece for Mr Trump’s campaign: “The future is gonna be fantastic.”

The two share the view that the US federal government needs to go through a thorough reform and that shared mission has led Mr Trump to appoint Mr Musk as co-head of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency, aiming to “dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies”.

However, experts say there is a clear contradiction that underlies the budding “bromance” – their approach to China.

Mr Roberts says several of Mr Musk’s companies, including Tesla and SpaceX, are heavily reliant on China’s clear advantage in producing lithium batteries and green energy products.

He adds: “China is very focused on the production of lithium batteries and other components that go into electric vehicles, so if you want to build a technologically sophisticated EV factory, there’s no alternative to China.”

Apart from his outsized business interests that depend heavily on China, Mr Musk has also been cooperative with the Chinese government’s demands. When Chinese authorities recalled more than 285,000 Tesla EVs and asked the company to make changes, Musk complied instantly.

Mr Musk also maintains a uniquely close relationship with the Chinese government. During the months-long Covid-19 lockdown in Shanghai in 2022, Tesla only had to close down its factory for four days before being permitted to resume production. He also met with Chinese premier Li Qiang in April, during which Mr Li praised Tesla as a “successful model” for US-China collaboration.

As US president-elect Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs on Chinese products once he takes office, which could range between 10 to 60 per cent. Mr Musk’s ties with China may put him in a complicated position.

Despite the close ties the pair have forged over the past year, Mr Roberts says there are clear contradictions between the Republican president’s cabinet nominees in charge of China policy and Mr Musk’s deep ties with China.

He says: “We are seeing a real line-up of serious China hawks among Trump’s cabinet nominees, including Marco Rubio, who is banned from entering China, and Mike Waltz, who has said that the U.S. is in a new Cold War with China,” he said.

He adds there was a real risk Mr Trump could “dump him”.

He adds: “Musk could be caught in the crossfire and if he were to lose his relationship with Trump, it would happen over US-China relations.”

However, although Mr Trump’s cabinet line-up suggests a potentially hardline approach to China, some experts say his administration’s China policy will be far from consistent.

Laura Smith, an expert on US presidential history at Arizona State University, says: “During his first term, Trump was quite complimentary towards Xi Jinping, describing the Chinese leader’s transition to seemingly ‘president for life’, which concerned a lot of Americans.”

Since Trump has also vowed to impose tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico, Ms Smith says his repeated threats to target Chinese products with high tariffs shouldn’t simply be viewed as a sign that he would be entirely hawkish on China.

She says: “Some Republicans are saying the proposed tariffs are opening gambits to more economic discussion and the outside world shouldn’t necessarily take them as an aggressive approach by Trump.”

With no clear signs of how Mr Trump’s China policy would be formulated, Mr Roberts says Mr Musk may hope to exert some influence on the Trump administration’s China policy since high tariffs on Chinese products could hurt Mr Musk’s business interests.

If Mr Trump follows through on the proposed tariffs, “Tesla and Musk’s entire empire are going to be hurt, so he may want to play a role in influencing the Trump administration’s China policy,” he says.

However, the effect of his attempts might be limited. “Musk doesn’t have a policy role and Trump doesn’t need him to open doors to the Chinese government. Additionally, the China hawks in his cabinet may not easily let Musk take charge of the Trump administration’s China policy,” Mr Roberts said.

Despite the potentially complicated situation that Mr Musk may face, analysts say China is keen to use its influence over the tech billionaire to stabilise its relationship with the US.

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said during an interview that “there has been widespread curiosity in China the past few months about whether Musk could be the new (Henry) Kissinger, helping broker a deal between Washington and Beijing”.

And even if Mr Musk’s opposition to a potentially tougher economic approach to China may contradict the Trump administration’s preferred policy, Ms Smith says Mr Trump might still find enough similarities with Mr Musk to uphold their close ties.

She says: “Trump has very little to fear right now because he’s got control of all branches of the US federal government and the court cases are drifting away. It’s helpful to keep people like Musk on his side.

“There is more consensus between them because their rhetoric on cutting government budgets is very similar.”

Source: The Telegraph
Tags: ChinaDonald TrumpElon MuskUS-China RelationsXi Jinping
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