New AU Mission in Somalia Will Have Defined Mandate, Huge Challenges

The new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is expected to differ significantly from previous AU missions in the country. While the previous missions struggled with multiple, sometimes conflicting, roles and expectations, AUSSOM will have a more defined role, according to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), for instance, was given less than three years to help the Somali National Army (SNA) defeat the terrorist group al-Shabaab, while AUSSOM has five years to complete its mission. AUSSOM is expected to gradually hand over security responsibilities to Somali forces and withdraw its personnel by the end of 2028.

“AUSSOM’s priority will be to bolster operations of the Somali Security Forces and carry out capacity building,” the institute wrote. “Unlike earlier missions, it has an explicit mandate to protect civilians under immediate threat of physical violence.”

The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia hands over the last of its forward operating bases to the Somali National Armed Forces in November. ATMIS

The mission will include up to 11,911 personnel, including 85 civilians and 680 police officers, according to independent news website Security Council Report. This is less manpower than the maximum strength of its predecessors, the African Union Mission in Somalia, or AMISOM, which had about 22,000 personnel, and ATMIS, which had 19,626.

According to the institute, the new mission’s success depends on the orderly transition of ATMIS to AUSSOM and how effectively it can help implement the six-year Somalia Security Sector Development Plan, adopted last year with a comprehensive approach to defeating al-Shabaab.

Also, “AUSSOM’s operational capability must be aligned with its mandate,” the researchers wrote. “Adequate financing is needed, along with qualified personnel and resources such as attack helicopters. Effective coordination with various partners and stakeholders will also be crucial.”

Another difference is that Ethiopia likely will not be part of the mission due to tensions with Somalia over a maritime agreement Ethiopia signed with Somaliland in January.

“I can say that Ethiopia is the only government we know of so far that will not participate in the new AU mission because it has violated our sovereignty and national unity,” Somalia Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur said in a Voice of America report.

Some critics, such as former Somali President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, do not believe the SNA will have the capacity to overrun al-Shabaab on its own when international forces leave. Somalia has asked for pauses in troop drawdowns multiple times.

“If the process of fighting al-Shabaab is correct, why are the army losing in the battles?” Ahmed said in a report by Kenya’s Nation newspaper.

“Are you aware, the military today does not have one battalion that can fight? The way the army has been managed is wrong.”

Nur disagreed with Ahmed’s assessment, especially as his comments came less than a week after the SNA and Jubaland paramilitary forces killed more than 80 al-Shabaab fighters in the Lower Juba region.

“I say to all Somali people, wherever they are, let us hold onto our hard-earned victories,” Nur said in the Nation report.

“Our fight against al-Shabaab is progressing well. In just two years, we’ve liberated vast territories, trained a formidable army, and successfully assumed control of numerous bases previously held by ATMIS.”

While Nur said al-Shabaab’s abilities are exaggerated by the military’s critics, the group has proven resilient. On November 13, al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a roadside bomb attack that killed two security personnel and one civilian and injured three others in Mogadishu, the capital.

The United Nations Security Council in early November also began a planned two-year drawdown of U.N. operations in Somalia. Formerly known as the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia, it is now called the United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia.

According to Horseed Media, the mission’s mandate will be to facilitate free and fair elections, promote human rights protection, coordinate international donor support, strengthen the rule of law, reform the security sector and streamline the U.N.’s efforts in Somalia.

— ADF —