It was revealed last month that 12,000 North Korean troops had been sent to Ukraine to fight on behalf of Russia. Now, they are reported to have been deployed to Kursk as part of the Russian counter-offensive, while Pyongyang this week ratified a landmark new defence pact with Moscow.
The reaction to these developments has been mixed. There were already indications that North Korea had provided significant materiel to the Russian war effort, including 8 million rounds of 122 millimetre and 152 millimetre ammunition and a number of ballistic missiles, according to figures from CSIS.
But the deployment of soldiers – apparently to assist the 50,000 Russian troops currently poised to retake Kursk from exhausted Ukrainian military units – is a serious escalation. While opinions are mixed as to the efficacy of North Korea’s fighting men, with some reports of friendly fire against their Russian allies, the addition of fresh men will provide a morale boost to front-line units.
The implications could go further than that, however – including for the security of the Indo-Pacific, and particularly South Korea. Units that fight alongside Russian troops may get the opportunity to learn modern warfare techniques and tactics. Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation, said in a statement to Business Insider that “Russia is training North Korean soldiers to operate strike UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and reconnaissance drones”.
Such training in the use of drones, counter-drone techniques, GPS jamming and other electronic warfare technologies in such a front-line environment – combined with Russian technology transfers – may end up serving as a catalyst for the modernisation of North Korea’s large but famously outdated army. It could certainly weaken deterrence on the South Korean border, where South Korea’s smaller but better-trained and better-equipped military has long held the line.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia has already helped North Korea with the launch of an indigenous military satellite system, on top of providing advanced drone technology to Pyongyang. The ISW also noted that Kim Jong-Un’s visit to Knevichi Airfield in Vladivostok in September 2023 included the North Korean leader viewing “several pieces of aviation and missile technology, including Tu-22MS, Tu-95MS, and Tu-160 nuclear-capable strategic bombers; Su-25SM3, Su-30SM, and Su-34 fighter-bombers; a MiG-31I combat aircraft equipped with Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles; the Marshal Shaposhnikov Udaloy-class frigate; a Uranus anti-ship missile system; and Kalibr cruise missiles.” A critical question is whether such tech transfers will include ballistic missile and nuclear technologies.
Not all of the impact will be negative. North Korea’s involvement may well cause a shift in South Korea’s view of the war in Ukraine. Up until now, the country has been cautiously supportive of Kyiv, providing weapons and 155mm munitions, but sending them to Poland, the Czech Republic, or the United States rather than directly to Ukraine. In response to the revelation that North Korean troops were deploying to Ukraine, South Korean President Yoon asserted: “We have had a principle of not directly supplying lethal weapons, but we can be more flexible and review the policy depending on North Korea’s military activities.”
So while Pyongyang’s deepening alliance with Russia heralds the formation of a definable new bloc arrayed against Nato, one that also includes China, any expansion of South Korea’s role in providing munitions to Ukraine and directly intervening in Europe could confirm the continued development of an opposing group of “Free World” nations disposed to defend the rules-based order.
Such a bloc has long been in development. The Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) – which comprises South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, and Australia – have had close ties to the Nato alliance for years. These links have been deepening. The IP4 were included in the last three Nato summits, and former secretary general Jan Stoltenberg recently listed security in the Indo-Pacific as important to Nato.
In 2019, I wrote in The Telegraph that the world had begun to move towards a “new Cold War”. Few could disagree that this is where we are heading now. And as North Korea’s closer ties with Russia demonstrate, the coming competition is likely to be truly global in nature.
Dr John Hemmings is a James Cook associate fellow in Indo-Pacific Geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy
Discussion about this post