Russia, China and US battle for influence in Africa

As they did so, U.S. service personnel in what had been one of the Pentagon´s most important bases on the continent – near Niamey, the capital of Niger – were packing up to leave. On July 7, the U.S. Air Force reported that pullout was complete, with a second base in the country due to close in August.

Multiple countries in the West African Sahel and beyond have seen Russian-linked coup d’etats since Kremlin-linked military commanders took power in Mali in 2021, followed by similar events in Burkina Faso, Sudan, Chad and Niger.

Almost all of those have been followed by the official eviction of French or U.S. forces that had previously been focused on fighting jihadist violence.

Since then, the US has been working to entrench its influence elsewhere in the continent, widely seen as a response to both recent Russian actions and a much longer-running Chinese campaign of influence and investment. Last month, the US designated Kenya Washington´s first “major non-NATO ally” on the continent, while Washington has also been engaged in a concerted effort to build relations with Angola, previously a major Russian and Chinese ally since the height of the Cold War.

The meeting with African Chiefs of Defence (ACHOD) at a luxury hotel in Botswana´s capital of Gaborone appears to have been another key moment for that strategy.

According to a U.S. military briefing note released after the event, Africa Command held more than 70 meetings with key figures and groups, although it was not clear whether all took place at the conference itself.

US African Command reported that senior representatives of 34 African nations attended. The list provided included several with ongoing reputations for Russian or Chinese influence including Angola, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast, Libya, Niger and Zimbabwe, as well as heavyweight African military powers Nigeria and South Africa alongside Kenya.

Unusually, the meeting was attended by delegations from both centres of power in Libya, where rival entities claiming to be the government of Libya have been fighting for years. The US now appears to be working to engage with authorities in both Tripoli and Benghazi that have been supported variously by Russia, Turkey, France and Greece amongst others, all feeding Libya´s civil war.

Several significant African nations were absent from the list released by US African Command including Djibouti, which hosts both a U.S. base and China´s first military installation on the continent. Not being publicly listed does not necessarily mean its officials did not attend, but implies its government did not wish to be publicly associated with the event.

The US has been organising ACHOD conferences since 2017, but this is the first year an African nation has agreed to act as co-host. Botswana, which has long nurtured U.S. links – but also accepted significant Chinese investment including last year´s purchase of a copper mine – took delivery of a US C-130 transport plane transferred to the Botswana Air Force in the run-up to the meeting.

U.S. military equipment transfers may offer it a potential diplomatic opening for African nations keen to move beyond the Soviet-era technology on which many of them depend. In 2022, Angola’s President Joao Lourenco described the US as the “ideal partner” to re-equip Angola’s military.

According to recent estimates, Angola may have received as much as $43 billion in Chinese loans – and along with fellow oil producer Equatorial Guinea, was touted as a potential Chinese naval base on the Atlantic – something Washington is seen extremely keen to stop.

Since 2022, U.S. investment in the country has ramped up to its highest levels ever, including $900 million for solar energy projects and $250 million as part of a rail corridor also supported by the European Union. Visitors this year have included USAID administrator Samantha Power in April as well as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who wrapped up a January Africa tour in the country that also included visits to Cape Verde, Ivory Coast and Nigeria.

CHINESE AND RUSSIAN PRESSURE

That U.S. outreach appears to have annoyed Beijing.

According to Angolan newspaper Valor Economico, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his “displeasure” with Angola’s change of course “in a less diplomatic manner” when Lourenco visited Beijing in March. This sentiment was also shared by the Russian government, Xi reportedly told him – although that did not stop the Chinese leader signing multiple new investment deals as Lourenco visited.

Plenty of African governments may be happy to take largesse from both Beijing and Washington. Having briefly fallen off during the Covid-19 pandemic, Chinese investment and loans to Africa increased again last year according to most independent surveys – with a particular focus on locking down mineral resources, essential for China´s energy transition and efforts to maintain dominance of the global battery market.

In September, China will host multiple African leaders and senior officials at a major investment conference in Beijing, looking to build on long-growing relationships. As they have throughout the last two decades, senior Chinese officials will be looking to reassure African counterparts that – unlike the US and European donors – they remain largely unbothered by how the recipients of their aid and trade rule their countries domestically, including when it comes to human rights.

Russia´s renewed efforts to win influence in Africa are a more recent development, growing from mercenary support to the Central African Republic through the 2010s to a much larger effort spearheaded first by the Wagner Group headed by former Kremlin catering contractor Yevgeny Prighozin, then believed taken over by Russian military intelligence following his death.

Russian efforts have found fast success.

In both Niger and Chad, the Pentagon appears to have hoped to find ways to maintain its military presence on the ground – but swiftly faced demands from the now Russian-backed military leadership of both nations for the small number of U.S. forces to leave.

In Niger, Africa Command said interference from the new military government including refusing diplomatic clearance for U.S. resupply and other flights, effectively forcing the repeated extension of the operational tour length of U.S. personnel within the country as they could not be extracted and replaced.

Over time, that appears to have ground Washington down and secured the U.S. departure.

In May, the Pentagon announced it was withdrawing around 75 U.S. special forces from Chad after another Russian-backed takeover there, shortly after local media reported a contingent of Russian contractors had flown into the country to conduct military training.

While Niger attended the U.S.-organised Africa Chiefs of Defence meeting in Botswana, Chad was not on the list released by U.S. officials.

Sudan, where Russia has reportedly backed rebel Rapid Support Forces before cutting a deal with the government in Khartoum to open a naval base in Port Sudan, was another apparent non-attendee.

Uganda and Ethiopia, both U.S. allies in the past particularly in Somalia, were also pointedly absent from the list released by US Africa Command.

According to Ethiopian media, Russian Deputy Defence Minister Mikhail Bogdanov – also its envoy to the Middle East and Africa – visited Addis Ababa this month, part of an African tour also including Sao Tome and Senegal.

Uganda´s President´s Yoweri Museveni visited Russia last year, while his eldest son and likely successor Muhoozi Kainerugaba – currently head of Uganda´s Land Forces – has repeatedly voiced his support for Vladimir Putin and his Ukraine invasion on social media.

The more recent U.S. embrace of Kenya’s President William Ruto may also be destined for headwinds. A day after President Joe Biden announced Kenya’s new status as a major non-NATO ally – and barely a month after Ruto visited the White House – riots rocked the Kenyan capital. According to local civil society groups, as many as 50 people may have been killed in the crackdown that followed.

If that relationship unravels, its effects may be felt beyond the African continent. Kenya is leading a U.S.-funded international mission to intervene in Haiti, and was also the only African nation to participate in the U.S.-led “Ramstein process” coordinating military aid to Ukraine.

Russia´s embassy in Nairobi denied suggestions the Kremlin had fanned the unrest on social media, saying video posts claiming Putin backed the riots were “misinformation” distributed by other unknown actors.

The battle for influence in Africa is if anything escalating in 2024, with plenty of new fronts to come.

(Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)