The shocking numbers behind the major problem facing Man United

It is Brentford next, and Ruben Amorim ought to be aware that there is a punishment for Manchester United managers who lose to Brentford. Or there was for Erik ten Hag, anyway. The Dutchman’s second game was a 4-0 reverse at the Gtech Stadium, where the nasty numbers extended beyond the scoreline. Brentford ran 13.8km further than United. So the next day, and in a summer heatwave, Ten Hag made each of his players run 13.8km to compensate. And he, already in his fifties, did likewise.

Which, when United only lost four of their next 40 games, seemed a transformative display of toughness. But, while Ten Hag’s last win as United manager came against Brentford, it was more telling that he was sacked after defeat to West Ham. He visited the London Stadium on three occasions and lost on all three. One of the factors in his ultimate failure as United manager was a malaise against the mid-table clubs.

Amorim has taken this to another level. He goes to Brentford on the back of one of his finest results as United manager, a 2-1 win over Chelsea. His Premier League record is wretched, with just 34 points from 32 games, but it can be divided into three parts.

Against the superpowers, last season’s top four of Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea, he has nine points from as many matches; fewer than United may have hoped for, but not actually disastrous, with a couple of victories and only four defeats.

Against the minnows of the promoted clubs, he has an almost impeccable return: 13 points from five outings, a debut draw with Ipswich followed by wins against Southampton, Ipswich, Leicester and Burnley, albeit after trailing in two of those encounters and requiring a 97th-minute decider in a third.

But the major problem is the other 12 clubs, those who, along with United, finished between fifth and 17th last season. For Amorim, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham, West Ham and Wolves can constitute a dirty dozen.

His United have played 18 league matches against them and taken just 12 points. They have a mere three victories: a 4-0 rout of Sean Dyche’s Everton, a 1-0 win at Fulham with a deflected goal last season and a final-day defeat of 10-man Aston Villa. Of their three draws, a 2-2 at Everton in February flattered them; a 1-1 at Bournemouth required a 96th-minute equaliser against another side reduced to 10 men.

That return could be even lower. Over those 18 matches, United have scored little more than a goal a game (19) and conceded almost two (31).

The worst element of it may be the seven home defeats; but it is compounded by fortunes in other competitions, by an FA Cup exit to Fulham and Carabao Cup quarter-final and Europa League final defeats to Tottenham which cost United both silverware and a place in Europe this season. Add them and Amorim’s record becomes three wins in 21; depending on whether a loss on penalties counts as a draw or a defeat, it is 14 or 15 of the latter.

So if it may explain why United committed more than £130m to players from the Premier League’s other 12 this summer, in Wolves’ Matheus Cunha and Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo – if you can’t beat them, buy them – it is revealing.

Amorim’s United can compete as underdogs against the best. They can beat the worst, albeit sometimes with a few alarms. Yet in matches where their resources ought to render them favourites and the league table may make them something approximating to equals, they have tended to be the inferior side.

Certainly, pound-for-pound, United have been the division’s great underachievers. They have spent around £850m on transfers since Ten Hag’s appointment, even if it can be too soon to judge Amorim’s £230m summer outlay. Their wage bill last season was very probably in the top five. They have paid more and got less in return.

But part of Amorim’s problems, and Ten Hag’s before him, has been the strength in depth of the division. The Premier League’s annual £100m-plus payments to its members mean the other 12 all have the ability to recruit and pay quality players. And, indeed, talented managers.

Both Ten Hag and Amorim have looked outcoached by their peers, as more well-configured teams have beaten United. The Portuguese faces a rookie in Keith Andrews on Saturday; losses against the Irishman’s predecessor, Thomas Frank, and coaches such as Andoni Iraola, Nuno Espirito Santo and Oliver Glasner last season, however, felt telling.

United spoke to managers of mid-table teams when considering sacking Ten Hag in the summer of 2024. But perhaps their identity, their status as one of the world’s biggest clubs, their belief they should have one of the planet’s outstanding managers, has prompted them to hire managers with higher winning percentages, untainted by defeats. Ten Hag took Ajax to the Champions League semi-finals, Amorim brought Sporting to two Portuguese titles.

Yet the gulf in resources in the Netherlands and Portugal may mean their equivalents of the Premier League’s Killer B’s – Brentford, Brighton and Bournemouth – have no such strength; that a manager of Ajax or Sporting may not need to get tactics or team selection right to beat them.

That, perhaps, has been the culture shock the Premier League has provided the last two United managers, its sheer competitiveness dragging them down. While United thought they were hiring one of the best young managers in Europe, in Amorim, he became one of the Premier League’s great underperformers.