For some time, the ground has been shifting in Kyiv as Ukraine braces for a potential Trump presidency and his much-touted promise of a ceasefire within 24 hours of taking office on 20 January 2025.
Senior figures, including Ukraine’s former commander of its armed forces and Ambassador to Britain, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, have openly suggested that reclaiming all of Ukraine’s territory may no longer be feasible in the short-term given the current level of Western support. They foresee a future in which some of the battle will be fought more diplomatically than militarily, with the land being returned in some latter political negotiation when Ukraine is more secure.
That may be true. Either way, for the first time, President Zelensky has indicated in an interview with Sky News that he might be prepared to cede some land to Russia in exchange for a NATO “umbrella” for protection. This echoes ideas put forward by his friend and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a recent interview on The Telegraph’s Ukraine: The Latest podcast. Johnson proposed that the UK should lead NATO forces to secure peace with boots on the ground, deterring further Russian aggression. Under this scenario, Ukraine would not yet be part of NATO but would benefit from its protection.
This would open the door for full NATO membership in, say, 20 years – an idea also suggested by Trump – and give Zelensky, along with future Ukrainian governments, the chance to diplomatically pursue the return of Russian-occupied territory from a position of relative strength. Even Putin might find this palatable, as it would ensure Ukraine remains outside NATO during his lifetime, thus protecting his ego.
Clearly, Kyiv is preparing to make some concessions ahead of Trump’s potential ascendancy. Trump’s special envoy, General Kellogg, has spoken of negotiations that freeze current frontlines, with Kyiv needing to be open to dialogue in order to maintain ongoing military support from the US and NATO. They are preparing for the worst.
But – and it is a big one – all hinges on one major assumption: that Moscow is willing to talk. Russia has not abandoned its maximalist objectives, and it is conceivable that Putin will opt to continue fighting while Kyiv shows a willingness to negotiate. That would when this make all this talk of territorial concessions meaningless in the long run, as it would underscore how it is the Kremlin that seeks to keep fighting whatever the cost, not the Ukrainian government. Eventually, the West might realise it has to fully back Zelensky: something that should have been obvious years ago. That could change everything, making all of this talk of concessions and negotiations totally void.
Also bear in mind that Ukraine still has a foothold on Russian territory in Kursk. Perhaps Zelensky only means he would be willing to give that up in order to find a pathway to peace? Not the whole of those eastern parts of the country where Putin’s forces sow misery and destruction.
Another positive for the Ukrainians is that Putin is not only preoccupied with Ukraine now. Syrian rebels are closing in on Aleppo – something they’ve been unable to achieve in over a decade of conflict. I spent significant time in Syria during that period, witnessing the horrors, including chemical weapons attacks that killed over 300,000 civilians. This week, Russian forces in northwest Syria were routed, and Putin could be forced to reinforce his troops there to protect his Mediterranean port of Tartus, which could now be at risk. Meanwhile, Iran – another key Russian ally – has been humiliated into a ceasefire through its proxy Hezbollah after escalating conflict with Israel.
With Putin losing 2,000 soldiers a day in Kursk, losing control of northwest Syria, and facing a humiliated Iran, the conditions may be ripe for a ceasefire. The spectre of nuclear threats from Russia seems increasingly hollow, unbacked by China’s refusal to support any escalation. There is now a realistic chance for peace, and potentially an unexpected Ukrainian victory – if the US and NATO commit fully to military support once they see that Putin has no interest in talks.
So watch this space. Russia cannot sustain this war indefinitely. The big question now is: who will emerge as the master strategist to end this illegal war? Trump, Putin, or Zelensky? The balance of power is delicate, but with NATO behind Trump, they may hold the winning hand. Let us hope they have the savvy and resolve to play it at the right moment.
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