It has been three years since the introduction of the Monday sit-at-home order across the five states of Nigeria’s South-East geopolitical zone. The initiative, initially intended to protest, has led to severe economic repercussions for the region. The sit-at-home orders have resulted in substantial revenue losses, estimated to be in the trillions of naira, alongside a significant decline in foreign investment. The economic toll is compounded by violence, destruction of property, and disruption to businesses.
SMB Intelligence reports that the region has lost at least N7.6 trillion due to escalating insecurity. Despite the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) officially suspending the sit-at-home order, various sympathetic groups continue to enforce it with increasing violence. The detention of IPOB leader Mazi Nnamdi Kanu by federal authorities—despite court orders for his release—has exacerbated the region’s instability. Consequently, the South-East economy suffers as the enforced holiday persists, with transporters alone losing an average of N10 billion each Monday, totaling approximately N700 billion annually and N3 trillion since the order’s inception.
An investigation by the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR) highlights that from August 2021 to December 2022, the South-East lost a staggering N5.325 trillion. This figure likely underestimates the total economic damage when considering indirect costs and the broader social impact, including deaths and property destruction. The South-East, once renowned for its substantial Diaspora remittances, now faces a dire economic situation.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports a dramatic drop in Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) in the region. In 2021, the South-East’s IGR hit an all-time low of N53 billion, with none of the five states meeting their revenue targets since then. Anambra, for example, achieved only 27 percent of its revenue target for 2021 and 2022, while other states fared even worse. Abia generated N7.5 billion, Anambra N12.77 billion, Enugu N14 billion, Ebonyi N7.7 billion, and Imo N9.9 billion in 2021.
SBM Intelligence’s latest report shows that between July 2023 and July 2024, Anambra emerged as the highest ransom-paying state in Nigeria, with victims paying approximately N350 million. This contrasts sharply with Rivers State’s N67 million in ransom payments. Prior to the sit-at-home order, the South-East was a leader in academic performance and attracted significant Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). However, enforced holidays have disrupted education and discouraged investment. From 2020 to 2023, the South-East attracted only 6 percent of Nigeria’s total FDI, with investment inflows totaling $265.8 million, compared to the South-West’s $20.29 billion.
The adverse effects of insecurity have prompted many businesses to relocate, while others have closed. Rural markets are largely non-functional, and many residents have abandoned their homes. This environment deters potential investors and undermines the region’s ease of doing business.
To address these issues, stakeholders, including governors and regional leaders, must intensify their efforts to restore peace. Strategic initiatives should focus on creating job opportunities and reducing poverty and youth unemployment, which are significant drivers of insecurity. It is crucial for the South-East to become a safe and attractive destination for investment.
Investors and entrepreneurs are encouraged to consider opportunities in the region, while the Federal Government should demonstrate a stronger commitment to peace, potentially by addressing the contentious issue of Nnamdi Kanu’s detention. Many believe that his release could expedite the return to normalcy and stability in the South-East.
Discussion about this post