Tinubu vs Buhari: Is the cold war turning into a real war?

George Orwell, in his article published in 1945, first used the phrase ‘Cold War’ to refer to what he predicted would be a nuclear stalemate between two or three super-monstrous states, each of which possessed a weapon by which millions of people could be wiped out in a few seconds. After the second world war ended in 1945, clashes of national interests in international politics made foes of hitherto allies – America and the Soviet Union – and realising the potential for mutual annihilation, both countries decided to wage proxy wars through allies, hence the manifestation of Cold War. A dispassionate assessment of the relationship between Ahmed Bola Tinubu and Muhammadu Buhari reveals huge similarities to the America-Soviet Union Cold War.

Eight years ago, it would be difficult to fathom a rift between Tinubu and Buhari, as the duo had forged an uncommon partnership that removed an incumbent political party from office, for the first time in Nigeria’s fourth republic. Both individuals had been colossi in their different regions; Buhari, a cult figure in the north, and Tinubu, a godfather in the south (particularly the south-west).

In most of Buhari’s presidency, it would seem like the two individuals had a nonaggression pact, as they stayed off each other’s paths. Even when bullion vans were seen entering Tinubu’s house, Buhari’s government refused to investigate him for money laundering. Similarly, Tinubu refused to join the criticism of Buhari’s government over its multiple failures. However, the ice was broken when, in his quest to win the APC presidential ticket and sensing that Buhari might not support him, Tinubu gave his no-holds-barred ‘emi lokan’ speech in Abeokuta, where he described the president in derogatory terms. His public relations team put a spin on the attack and claimed he was merely describing past events.

Suffice it to say that Buhari had summoned the governors of the APC and urged them to allow him to choose his successor as he had not interfered in their choice of governorship successors in their various states. The president would have thought he could count on the support of the governors, considering that he was commander-in-chief. He would have felt disappointed when the northern governors (his supposed closest allies) came to him a few days later to say that they would prefer a southern aspirant as his successor. Political dynamics also revealed that those governors were in close alliance with Bola Tinubu. Apparently, Tinubu had checkmated the president. If Buhari had insisted on pushing an aspirant at that point, he would have been roundly beaten, a situation which would be enormously embarrassing for an incumbent president.

On the day of the primaries, it was apparent on the president’s face that he was in a raving rage. He was helpless. He had to sit through the tortuous emasculation of the event by Tinubu, who ultimately trounced other aspirants to pick the ticket of the party. Would Buhari let go of his burnt pride and let Tinubu go? This was a question pundits asked and waited to see.

Having won the ticket of the party, Tinubu was faced with the challenge of bringing on board critical stakeholders of the party who could sensitise the voting bases that he would need to emerge president. Close allies of the president stayed far from the campaign. Visibly, strong party members like Yemi Osinbajo, Boss Mustapha, Rotimi Amaechi and others also stayed away.

Buhari did not utter a negative word against Tinubu. He even appeared in a few campaign events with him. However, something seemed off. The sudden rejuvenated energy of Buhari to ensure a free and fair election where money or touts would not influence the outcome was troubling to the Tinubu camp.

Every time the president reiterated his commitment to a free and fair election where money or touts would not influence the process, it seemed he was speaking to the Tinubu Campaign Organisation.

If this was not a strong case of his blockade of a Tinubu presidency, then his sudden naira redesign and cash policy about four months before the election would certainly be more suggestive. In the past decade, money has played a role in all elections Tinubu has been involved in, even the ones he lost. It would be a monumental upset of the Tinubu strategy to take out cash from the 2023 Presidential election. According to Tinubu in Abeokuta on January 25, 2023:

“Let them increase the price of fuel, let them continue to hoard fuel, only them know where they have hoarded fuel, they hoarded money, they hoarded Naira; we will go and vote and we will win. Even if they change ink on Naira notes. Whatever their plans, it will come to nought. We are going to win.”

On January 31, 2023, he also said: “Today, they moved the exchange rate from N200 to N800. If they had repaired it, if they had arrested it, we won’t be where we are today. We will be greater. They don’t know how to think, they don’t know how to do…”

While Tinubu’s PR team will put a spin on these statements as they always do, one wonders if Tinubu has decided to make the Cold War a real war. The political intelligence of Tinubu is so sharp that one is inclined to not hastily describe his attacks on Buhari as simply unguarded. Has he realised that an open conflict would be more beneficial to his campaign than a Cold War?

After all, it was only after he openly fought Buhari before the primaries through his ‘Emi lokan’ speech that he got the president to back-pedal and he (Tinubu) clinched the APC ticket. Are we on the verge of seeing another masterstroke from the master politician? While we wait to find out, the cold war continues to gather steam and may not stay cold for much longer.

Dr Robert Ekat can be reached via [email protected]