A ceasefire to end 14 months of fighting between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah has come into effect, with Lebanese civilians already returning to the devastated south of the country.
Do we know the details of the deal?
The agreement follows the contours of UN security council resolution 1701, which ended the 36-day Israel-Hezbollah war of 2006, but was never fully implemented.
The deal requires Israel’s military to withdraw from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah to pull its heavy weapons north of the Litani River, about 16 miles (25km) north of the frontier. The western-backed Lebanese army is expected to deploy to the south during a 60-day transition phase.
While Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government, its forces are not part of the official military. A copy of the ceasefire deal seen by Reuters stipulated that only “official military and security forces” in Lebanon will be allowed to carry weapons. Hezbollah is unlikely to disarm completely but might reduce its armed presence in public.
Israel has long complained of Hezbollah stationing weaponry near its territory while Hezbollah has claimed only it – not the weaker Lebanese state army – is powerful enough to resist Israel’s expansionist policies.
The hope is that the ceasefire will become permanent, and the deal will be monitored by a US-led supervisory mechanism that will act as a referee on infringements. A letter of assurance that is not formally part of the deal reportedly guarantees US support for Israeli freedom of action if Hezbollah attacks Israel again or moves its forces or weaponry south of the Litani.
How the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is supposed to work
Is it likely to work?
Israel appears to have come to the table after warnings from Washington that a failure to agree a ceasefire would prompt the US not to veto a UN security council resolution that would impose a ceasefire under disadvantageous conditions for Israel.
Hezbollah, which the US considers a terrorist organisation, participated in the talks for the truce via mediators and has not formally commented on the ceasefire.
Israel will be glad of the opportunity to rest its tired ground forces and reservists and repair and replenish munitions and inventory. It is also pleased that the US, its major ally, will be directly involved in mediating violations.
What is the situation on the ground
There has been fierce fighting over the past few days as both sides seek to solidify gains.
Israel carried out intensive airstrikes on the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and across the south of the country on Monday and Tuesday, after Hezbollah fired more than 200 rockets into Israel on Sunday – one of the heaviest attacks since the war began.
The conflict escalated in late September, when hundreds of hezbollah pagers exploded in an attack attributed to Israel. Israel then killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership in airstrikes, and launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
About 3,700 people have been killed in Lebanon, and 126 people in Israel by the fighting. Hundreds of thousands on both sides of the frontier have been displaced from their homes.
What about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza?
Importantly for the Israelis, Hezbollah has dropped its demand that a ceasefire in Lebanon is contingent on ending the fighting in Gaza.
Since a truce in the Gaza war collapsed after a week last November, ceasefire negotiations have repeatedly failed. Qatar, a major mediator between Israel and Hamas, announced earlier this month it was quitting its role until both parties showed “willingness and seriousness” in the talks.
Resettling or permanently reoccupying Gaza is not official Israeli policy, but senior defence officials recently told the Haaretz newspaper that the government was aiming to annex large parts of the territory rather than negotiate an end to the war.
IDF evaluation orders have focused on North Gaza in November
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