By Steven Ross Johnson
Estimates show the global disease threat posed by cancer will only increase in the coming years as projections indicate more than 35 million new cases will occur in 2050, with many countries yet to dedicate adequate resources toward treatment and care services.
The latest estimates released on Thursday by the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer, predict a 77% global increase in new cancer cases in 2050, up from the 20 million estimated in 2022. As a result, the number of cancer deaths worldwide is expected to double by 2050 to an estimated 18.5 million compared to 9.7 million in 2022.
According to the estimates, Africa is the region expected to see the greatest percentage increase in cancer cases in 2050, rising nearly 140% to 2.8 million compared to an estimated 1.2 million cases in 2022. The estimated number of cancer cases in Asia, which had the most in the world at more than 9.8 million in 2022, is expected to increase 77% in 2050 to total 17.4 million cases.
Current estimates from the WHO’s Global Cancer Observatory show lung, female breast and colorectal cancers combined accounted for more than 6.7 million, or one-third, of all new cases globally in 2022, with those cancer types making up an estimated 35% of the 9.7 million cancer-related deaths that year.
Researchers attribute the expected rise in cancer cases to several risk factors. As the likelihood of cancer increases with age, projected growth in the world’s elderly population is likely to lead to a rise in cancer cases, according to the report. According to a 2019 report from the United Nations, the number of adults ages 65 years and older is expected to reach 1.5 billion by 2050.
Other key drivers include an increase in the number of people expected to face risk factors associated with socioeconomic development, including a predicted rise in exposure to air pollution, tobacco and alcohol, as well as an estimated increase in obesity within those populations.
Report researchers say both the projected and current estimates reflect the inequities found among countries when it comes to the kinds of resources they invest toward providing the care services that’s needed to meet the growing demand.
Also released on Thursday were the results of a WHO survey with responses from 115 countries with universal health care coverage that found only 39% included basic cancer management as part of the basic health services they provide, while 28% additionally covered palliative care services.
The survey found high-income countries were four to seven times more likely to include care services to address lung cancer as part of the benefits included within their universal health coverage systems than lower-income countries, and that they were 12 times more likely to have stem-cell transplantation as a part of their health coverage as well.
“Despite the progress that has been made in the early detection of cancers and the treatment and care of cancer patients, significant disparities in cancer treatment outcomes exist not only between high and low-income regions of the world, but also within countries,” said Dr. Cary Adams, CEO of the nongovernmental organization Union for International Cancer Control, in a released statement. “Where someone lives should not determine whether they live. Tools exist to enable governments to prioritize cancer care, and to ensure that everyone has access to affordable, quality services.”
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