From the battlefields of Ukraine to the volatile waters of the Indo-Pacific, the fabric of global stability as we hurtle towards 2025 appears frayed, stitched together with little more than fragile diplomacy and the threat of a nuclear winter.
Some analysts now argue that World War III is no longer a distant possibility – it has already begun, just in ways more subtle than Western societies experienced at the start of the 20th century’s global conflicts.
The early stages of World War III may not be fought not through the conventional means of tanks and trenches beyond the frontlines of Ukraine, but through hybrid threats, covert battles and ideological jockeying in the digital arena.
National security expert Mark Toth and former US intelligence officer Col. Jonathan Sweet are among those arguing that World War III is already upon us.
‘This third global conflagration doesn’t look or feel like what Hollywood envisioned,’ they claim.
‘No mushroom clouds or apocalyptic wastelands. Rather, it is war by a thousand cuts, conducted across multi-regional and multi-domain battlefields.
Here, MailOnline speaks to Sweet and Toth along with military chiefs, former presidents and geopolitical experts to assess whether we are really entering a new period of global attrition.
Unfortunately, the signs are ominous.
Hybrid warfare and covert ops
The concept of hybrid warfare lies at the heart of arguments that World War III is already underway.
Unlike traditional wars, today’s conflicts are fought not just with guns and bombs but through all manner of tactics including cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage and economic manipulation.
Toth and Sweet point the finger at Vladimir Putin as the main driver of the march toward disaster and say Russia’s strategy spans multiple arenas – not just in Ukraine, but from Africa to beyond Earth’s atmosphere and the digital theatre.
In Africa, Russian paramilitary groups, such as the Wagner Group, have fuelled coups, destabilising democracies and consolidating Moscow’s influence.
And in Europe, espionage and damaging covert operations have resurfaced with Cold War intensity.
Arson attacks targeting logistical hubs across the West to disrupt critical supply chains while daring assassinations cut down Russian dissidents and political opponents in the streets
According to Sweet and Toth, this unconventional ‘grey zone’ warfare is Vladimir Putin’s area of expertise.
Putin’s ability to conduct hybrid warfare is arguably his greatest strength,’ they emphasise, pointing to Russia’s continent-spanning efforts to spread disinformation, construct pro-Kremlin narratives and influence governments and citizens alike to turn against the West.
‘To fully understand the scope of Russia’s vast disinformation campaign, just look at the US, UK, and Africa.
‘Russian troll and bot farms use memes and fake fact-check accounts to demonise the West and distract from Russian paramilitaries overthrowing democracies,’ Sweet and Toth told MailOnline.
‘Russian troll and bot farms have infiltrated online spaces with cartoons, memes, and fake fact-check accounts to disseminate discord and erode confidence in Western governments.’
This includes sophisticated AI tools that generate deepfakes and fabricated narratives, such as the fake documentary ‘Olympics Have Fallen,’ designed to incite fear ahead of the Paris Olympics.
Even space has become a battlefield, with Putin threatening anti-satellite weapons aimed at crippling Western communications and intelligence networks.
‘Kinetic’ conflicts and physical warfare
Though citizens of Western nations may have to be wary of disinformation, there are several hotspots where so-called kinetic warfare is very much underway.
Nowhere in the world is this more obvious than Ukraine where hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians have been slain in the war closing in on the three-year mark.
Recent Ukrainian strikes using US-provided ATACMS missiles and UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles prompted Putin to unleash the never-before-seen ‘Oreshnik’ – a new hypersonic ballistic missile – on Ukraine.
Days prior, the Kremlin chief signed into effect an amended nuclear doctrine which officially lowered the threshold under which Moscow can deploy their devastating weapons.
Although their ranks are suffering heavy casualties, the Russian army is advancing westward in Ukraine at a rate faster than any other time after the initial days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of London over the past month.
The Russian President also declared this week that Moscow could soon begin to strike ‘decision-making centres’ in Kyiv if Ukraine continues to hit targets in Russia with US and UK missiles as more than a million Ukrainians without electricity in freezing cold temperatures following mass drone and rocket attacks.
Elsewhere, the Middle East is reeling amid the aftermath of Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel – a dastardly scheme that triggered an inferno of violence and has left tens of thousands dead in Gaza and Lebanon with no clear end in sight.
Hamas and Hezbollah’s chief backer Iran has further escalated the situation with missile and drone strikes against Israel, while analysts suspect Tehran is drawing dangerously close to developing nuclear weapons.
And in the Indo-Pacific, China’s escalating aggression against Taiwan and the Philippines has stoked fears of an explosive clash in this strategically critical region.
Recent months have seen Beijing adopt an increasingly threatening posture with top US defence officials warning China could attempt an invasion of Taiwan well before the end of the decade.
All the while, Kim Jong Un stands by, his fist clenching the keys to North Korea’s burgeoning nuclear arsenal having completely severed ties with South Korea and sent troops to aid Putin in his war on Ukraine.
‘Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was the opening stage (of World War Three). It was his marker to the global community that the world order as it had existed since the end of the Second World War was no longer,’ argued Sweet and Toth.
‘Russia continues to play the victim while escalating against Ukrainian civilians,’ they said, underscoring the Kremlin’s intent to destabilise its adversaries.
An aerial view of Chasiv Yar shows the frontline city in ruins after heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces for over a year, Donetsk Region, Ukraine, Nov. 11, 2024.
Great power competition and ideological battles
Chief Air Marshal – Head of the RAF Sir Richard Knighton – feels the current state of geopolitics highlights the erosion of the West’s strategic advantage in such an interconnected world where major powers like Russia and China are strengthening mutual ties and building relations with the likes of North Korea and Iran.
‘We are witnessing a return to great power competition,’ he told attendees at a Q&A at the Freeman Air and Space Institute earlier this month, pointing to a complex web of military and economic rivalries that span the globe.
For a man of his background, one critical area of concern is the loss of Western air supremacy and the need to rapidly improve decision-making processes to ensure militaries can fight effectively if a kinetic conflict is triggered.
‘With the rapid advancement of technology and the economic, technical, and warfighting capabilities of other major powers, we no longer have total air supremacy,’ Knighton noted, adding that this shift has profound implications, especially as emerging powers like China continue to modernise their militaries at unprecedented rates.
Knighton also underscored the importance of investing in deterrence and resilience to prevent war rather than being forced into fighting one for which Britain and many European nations are ill-prepared.
‘In 1936, Britain was spending 2.9% of its GDP on defence. By 1945, that figure was 52%. War is incredibly costly,’ he said, urging proactive measures to strengthen defences in air, space, and cyber domains to counter hybrid threats effectively.
Sir Richard’s remarks about the return of great power competition support those who argue that while the physical phase of a Third World War may not have begun in earnest, the ideological battle certainly has.
Workers fix a thermal power plant damaged by a Russian missile strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, at an undisclosed location in Ukraine November 28, 2024.
For former French President François Hollande, today’s geopolitical climate represents an existential battle over differing approaches to governance and building societies which, though not as black and white as the Cold War clash between capitalism and communism, could prove to be just as deadly if allowed to continue unchecked.
‘We are in a world war between democracy and authoritarianism,’ Hollande said in a lecture at King’s College London earlier this month.
‘Putin only considered us for our strength. What counts is our strength and resolution. We all need to be in it together.’
Hollande sees Europe’s divisions and the rise of far-right parties as a critical challenge.
He argues for unity and resolve, asking: ‘Do we want to keep defending democracy? Are we ready to give part of our lives to uphold it?’
His warnings are underscored by the presence of North Korean troops fighting for Russia in Ukraine, a chilling sign of global alliances coalescing into conflict.
‘It’s the first time since the end of the Cold War that there are troops from another continent present in Europe behind the Russian forces,’ he said in reference to more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers supporting Moscow’s forces in Kursk.
‘We need to do a lot more – including massively ramping up aid to Ukraine,’ he said.
A Ukrainian wounded serviceman who was brought back from positions is being treated by Ukrainian military doctors is prepared to be transported to a hospital, at a stabilisation point of the 33rd Mechanised Brigade, near the Kurakhove town’s frontline, in the eastern Donetsk region, early on October 14, 2024.
Can crisis be averted before it’s too late?
Despite the pervasive tensions, Adeline Van Houtte, Senior Europe Analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit offers a more measured perspective.
She argues that while the risk of escalation has undoubtedly grown, we are not quite witnessing the onset of World War III.
‘The revised nuclear use threshold and the Oreshnik [missile] are most likely intended to send a message to the West, but a nuclear escalation remains highly unlikely,’ Van Houtte explains.
She believes Russia’s hybrid attacks through cyber sabotage, disinformation and infrastructure sabotage are tools of intimidation rather than precursors to outright war.
Van Houtte also notes that the West’s deterrence measures remain effective.
‘Action to widen the scale of the war to bring in new players or expand the current battlefield within Ukraine remains highly unlikely,’ she asserts, tempering fears of imminent global war.
Sweet and Toth, however, remain resolute in their assertion.
‘It’s already a World War, only largely contained to the borders of Ukraine – until August when Ukraine invaded Kursk.’
RAF chief Sir Richard’s warnings reinforce the need for preparation.
‘The ability of a nation and its armed forces to adapt during a conflict is a key determinant of success,’ he insists, calling for investments in deterrence and resilience.
The question is not whether World War III has begun but whether we can prevent it before it is too late.
As Hollande emphasises: ‘We are in a place of freedom. What counts is our strength and resolution.’
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