Alliance of the Sahelian States: Reality, Theatric, or Rhetoric

Three West African countries have broken away from a 15-member regional bloc that has long ensured free movement of people and goods among its tightly knit economies, further destabilizing an area that is home to nearly 400 million people and threatened by violent insurgents.

The leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger last weekend announced their “irrevocable and immediate” withdrawal from the bloc, the Economic Community of West African States, known as ECOWAS. They said that they are creating their own confederation.

The three countries, all ruled by military leaders friendly to Russia, span more than half of the bloc’s geographic area and are among its most populous. However, they are not the region’s largest economies, and as landlocked nations, all three depend on access to ports in coastal countries for overseas trade.

“Our region is facing the risk of disintegration,” Omar Alieu Touray, the president of ECOWAS’s executive arm, said on Sunday.

The bloc has appointed Senegal’s newly elected president as a mediator in the crisis. But experts say that the breakup is now underway — and the consequences for people in the region may be stark.

Why are Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger leaving the bloc?

The three countries share borders, cultural and ethnic ties, and recent political history: Military leaders there ousted civilian governments in coups, accusing them of failing to defeat Islamist terrorist groups. The military juntas sidelined presidents, even locking one up in his residence, and refused to relinquish power or organize elections. As a result, ECOWAS imposed economic sanctions on them, hoping to compel the juntas to restore civilian rule.

But that approach has mostly hurt the countries’ populations, and in the founding treaty of their new alliance, the three leaders condemned the West African bloc’s “illegal, illegitimate and inhuman sanctions.”

The leaders’ supporters, as well as independent analysts, have also denounced what they call a double standard: ECOWAS has rarely applied sanctions to civilian leaders in West Africa who cling to power despite terms limits — what experts refer to as “constitutional coups” — while issuing punishments after military coups.

Meanwhile, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have forged closer ties with Russia while cutting off military cooperation with the United States, France and other European countries.
Through their new confederation, known as the Alliance of the Sahelian States, the three countries’ leaders vowed to create a joint investment bank and conduct projects in sectors like agriculture, energy and infrastructure — priorities that ECOWAS has been promoting for decades.

The leaders also announced the creation of a joint military force to fight jihadist insurgents who have killed tens of thousands of civilians in the three countries over the past decade.

What does it mean for local people?

Freedom of movement for goods and people between countries is at stake, according to analysts.

For instance, families, traders and their wares have long moved freely across the border between Nigeria and Niger, a populous area of people who share the same ethnic groups and languages. That could change if new visa and customs rules are imposed.

Garba Maina, a 57-year-old trader, sells clothing from Nigeria in Niger and brings back rice, onions and pepper to sell in Nigeria. He called the breakup “a great disadvantage to us doing business along the Nigeria-Niger border.”

And he expressed a fear held by many in the border region.

“We might now need a visa to visit our families living less than 500 meters away from each other,” he said, referring to a distance less than one-third of a mile.

However, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger remain part of a currency union, the CFA zone, that has ensured freedom of movement among its eight members. So for now, experts say, people and goods in those countries would still be able to pass freely.

But that would not include Nigeria, an ECOWAS member that is the region’s most populous nation and one of Niger’s biggest trading partners, according to the World Bank. Nigeria uses Naira as a currency, while Niger, like many other former French colonies, uses the colonial-era Franc CFA.

How are other West African leaders responding?

In a statement released on Sunday, ECOWAS leaders expressed “disappointment with the lack of progress in engagements” since the three countries announced their intent to withdraw in January.

The bloc was founded in 1975 to promote economic integration in the region. It has now appointed Senegal’s newly-elected president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, to try to bring the three countries fully back in.

Mr. Faye, 44, is from the same generation as the rulers of Burkina Faso and Mali. He shares some of their Pan-African views and their criticism of Western powers. He is also the only West African head of state to have met with the three leaders in recent months.

Gilles Olakounlé Yabi, founder and president of the West Africa Think Tank known as WATHI, said that although the countries were unlikely to rejoin anytime soon, “Through President Faye, ECOWAS is keeping the door open.”

When will the changes be felt?

Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali will still be part of the regional bloc for a year, the legal period of transition after a member nation announces its withdrawal.

So it is unclear when the first consequences might be noticeable — when, for instance, visas could be required between Niger and Nigeria.

“Now we need to see the three governments get the ball rolling in terms of disengagement,” said Idayat Hassan, a Nigeria-based senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s not only about theatrics and rhetoric anymore.”

Mr. Yabi, with the West Africa Think Tank, pointed out that the military rulers had withdrawn from the regional bloc without consulting their populations, in the same way they had taken over their countries.

“These leaders seized power in a coup, and nobody can say how long they will last,” he said. “One important political change in one these countries, and they might be back into ECOWAS.”

• Ismail Alfa contributed reporting from Maiduguri, Nigeria.