Uganda’s president, Yoweri Museveni, used to tell young women to produce more children. He said a large population would attract more investors. But since 2012 Mr Museveni has advised Ugandan women against many pregnancies, warning them that they will weaken their bodies and struggle to bring up several children. In recent decades rapidly improving health care has driven a baby boom in sub-Saharan Africa, putting pressure on schools and health services. Fertility rates are tumbling elsewhere, including in China and India, which account for more than a third of the global population. By the turn of the century, the share of the world’s babies born in sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to reach 55%, from 30% in 2021. And people will be living longer. The continent’s population is thus set to double by 2050.
A new study published in the Lancet, a medical journal, provides a comprehensive breakdown of fertility trends in each of the world’s regions. The authors compare total fertility rates (TFRS), meaning the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime (see chart 1). When making forecasts they account for factors often omitted, such as levels of female education, population density and rates of contraceptive use.
The study finds that the global TFR has fallen by more than half from 4.84 in 1950, the earliest recorded measure, to 2.23 in 2021. Meanwhile, in sub-Saharan Africa, it has fallen more slowly and remains close to 4.29. The continent has almost half of the 94 countries with a tfr of above 2.1, the “replacement rate” at which a population is stable in the long run.
But the gap between sub-Saharan Africa and other regions is closing (see chart 2). By 2075 the region’s TFR is expected to drop below 2.1. By the end of the century, it will be 1.82, approaching current levels in Ireland and Denmark. That is driven by improving education and job prospects, especially for women. Contraception is also becoming more common in the region. In Senegal, for example, contraception use among married women has doubled to 26% in the decade to 2023; in Kenya more than half of them use it.
According to the Lancet study, the convergence between regional rates could happen even faster than predicted by the un. This is in line with other recent studies, which suggest that fertility rates are falling faster than expected. Researchers believe this may be in part because of a push in recent decades to improve girls’ education, as well as a recent uptick in the use of contraception.
Those demographic factors will play out differently in various parts of sub-Saharan Africa. More children will continue to be born in poorer places. Governments can also offer women better family-planning services and invest more in education. In Angola, for instance, women without schooling have 7.8 children, whereas those with tertiary education have 2.3. The Lancet study projects that if universal female education or universal contraceptive needs were met by 2030, the region’s tfr would fall to 2.3 in 2050, compared with 2.7 at the current trends. That is probably not attainable. But it should motivate governments to try.
Source: Economist
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