Nigeria President Bola Tinubu is at the moment under pressure from the United States and the United Nations to intervene in the political crisis in the Republic of Niger, where some soldiers from the Presidential Guard deposed President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26.
Both the US Vice President, Kamala Harris and UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, have expressed support for Nigeria’s efforts toward the restoration of constitutional order in Niger. Harris and Guterres stated their position in separate telephone conversations with the Nigerian President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
As soon as the news of the coup in Niger broke, Tinubu who is the Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), outrightly rejected the threat to democracy in that country. He further dispatched a strong delegation led by the youthful and agile President of Republic of Benin, Patrice Talon to talk with all the parties involved in the Niger crisis with a view to restoring constitutional order in the troubled West African country.
Prior to the military coup in Niger, Tinubu had in his inaugural speech as ECOWAS Chairman, warned that coups will no longer be tolerated in the West African sub-region. Both the European Union (EU) and African Union (AU) condemned the mutiny in Niger. The AU issued 15-day ultimatum to the mutinous soldiers to return to the barracks and restore constitutional authority in the country.
In a swift reaction, the coup plotters warned against any foreign interference in their country, saying that they decided to put an end to the regime of President Bazoum, owing to the country’s deteriorating security situation and bad governance. The new military junta closed down the country’s borders, imposed nationwide curfew and suspended all institutions of the republic. For now, the whole world is carefully watching Nigeria, hoping that she will end the debacle in Niger, one way or the other.
In the past, Nigeria lived up to expectation in other troubled West African countries, the last example being Gambia where in collaboration with forces from sister West African nations, Nigerian forces under President Muhammadu Buhari as Commander-in-Chief, superintended over the removal of brutal dictator, Yahya Jammeh in 2017. Jammeh was replaced by Aadama Baaro, the rightful winner of the 2017 presidential election in Gambia. The country has enjoyed relative peace ever since.
However, that Nigeria intervened successfully in Gambia is not a guarantee that things will go the same way in Niger. Gambia is a very small country of 11, 300 square kilometers, with a population of about 2.6 million people. Niger covers over 1.26 million square kilometers. Although it has a thin population of about 22 million people, it is larger than Nigeria in size. On the other hand, Nigeria’s population is ten times larger than that of Niger.
Nonetheless, both countries have one thing in common. They epitomise “the paradox of poverty in the midst of plenty.” Although the two next-door neighbours are blessed with abundant natural resources, they have very high poverty rate. While in Nigeria, 133 million people are multidimensionally poor according to statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 10 million people in Niger, representing nearly half of the 22 million population, are poor. Besides, the Sahel Region of Africa where Niger is located has a history of all kinds of calamities including armed conflicts and droughts.
For this reason, one thinks Nigeria should exercise caution in intervening in the current standoff in Niger, regardless of international pressure. Acting on the contrary may be both suicidal and very costly, especially for the Nigerian side.
In intervening in Niger, President Tinubu should be mindful of the fact that he is dealing with a sovereign country, just like Nigeria, the United States and every other country. Niger gained independence from France on August 3, 1960, almost two months earlier than October 1, 1960 when Nigeria gained independence from Britain. Hence, any action that Nigeria and by extension, ECOWAS or anybody else should take in Niger must respect the sovereignty of that country and should be geared toward resolving the conflict in that country in the interest of everybody.
Considering the proximity of Niger to Nigeria, the escalation of the conflict in the former could be detrimental to the latter. Unlike Gambia, which is very far-away from Nigeria, the Niger-Nigeria border is about 1,608 kilometres. Seven states in Northern Nigeria share land borders with Niger Republic. They are Borno, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara states. Most of the communities bordering Nigeria and Niger are tormented by all kinds of deadly terrorist groups. An outbreak of hostilities between both countries may be very catastrophic, especially for Nigeria.
With the Nigerian military almost overwhelmed by internal security operations, inviting external aggression will amount to Nigeria committing hara-kiri. With a total debt hovering around N46.25 trillion, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO), how and where will Nigeria get the money to fund a war at this time?
Besides, there is the possibility of a conflict between the two West African neighbours snowballing into a regional or global conflict. Unlike Nigeria which has fought only one civil war since independence (excluding peace keeping operations), Niger is a veteran of many armed conflicts. Niger was among the African countries that participated in the Gulf War between 1990-1991 during the Operation Desert Shield, which was an armed campaign waged by 39-country coalition against Iraq over its invasion of Kuwait. Other African members of the US led coalition were Egypt and Morocco. The coalition drove the Iraqi Army out of Kuwait.
Niger also found itself in the theatre of some domestic conflicts, such as the Taureg Rebellion in Mali and Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria. Both conflicts spilled into Niger from the countries where they were nursed. Presently, French troops who withdrew from Mali in August 2022 after the military coup in that country, have found new home in Niger.
The military juntas in Mali and Burkinafaso, two other french speaking West African countries have thrown their weight behind their counterpart in Niger.
Before gaining Independence from France in 1960, Niger was among the 11 members of the Franco-African Community. They all got Independence in the same year (1960) alongside Cameroun and Togo, two trust territories administered under the UN mandate. Niger has a revolutionary history dating back to the days of the Sawaba Movement, which had links with China in the 1960s. The movement drew large membership from Hausa speaking areas of the country. The attempt to eliminate President Hamani Diori in 1965 was linked to dissidents trained in China. Also, Libyan leader, Col. Mammar Gaddafi (now deceased) supported opposition elements in Niger during his time.
I will at this juncture advise President Tinubu not to allow any country, no matter how highly rated, to push Nigeria into any form of confrontation with Niger. I expect him to adopt a conciliatory approach in handling the delicate situation in Niger. The war in Sudan is still raging. No part of Africa should be another battleground for the fact that US is afraid of the new military junta in Niger, favouring cooperation with Russia like its counterparts in Mali and Guiinea.
Every country has the capacity to reconcile its internal contradictions. We are battling with our own contradictions in Nigeria. Even the US has its own contradictions, giving rise to the growing spate of mass shootings in the country. Is it not an irony that the US Vice President, Kamala Harris is today beckoning on President Tinubu to defend democracy in Niger, whilst she shunned Nigeria during her first official tour of Africa in April this year? During her 3-leg tour to Africa, she visited the heads of states of Ghana, Zambia and Tanzania.
Why should US use different playbooks in dealing with dictators? Back in the days of the Cold War, US supported ruthless repressive regimes in South Korea, Taiwan, Zaire and Egypt. Before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran was an ally of US. Post Cold War, it has not changed its incoherent policy toward dictators. Saudi Arabia is a repressive regime. Yet, it is an ally of the US. In Africa, the US still supports and partners with Equitorial Guinea, a country ruled by one of the longest serving dictators, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo. In the name of American Pragmatism, it varies its playbook in dealing with dictators.
In conclusion, President Tinubu should tread carefully in dealing with the situation in Niger. It is not only military coups that give rise to dictatorships. Even here in Africa, Nigeria inclusive, we have seen elected “democratic” regimes that ended up being as dictatorial as the military regimes. In recent times, we have seen civilian coups in form of democratic elections in Africa. Hence, dialogue is the way out of the crisis in Niger and not war rhetoric.
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