In the wake of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential race yesterday, the Democratic nobility were quick to get in line behind Kamala Harris. Biden himself set the tone. “Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year,” he wrote. “Democrats – it’s time to come together and beat [Donald] Trump. Let’s do this.”
Any suggestion that the party might entertain an open selection process was swiftly quashed, as most of Harris’s possible rivals, including California governor Gavin Newsom, transport secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, followed his lead. They were joined by a parade of grandees: Bill and Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Amid the gathering enthusiasm, one surname is glaringly absent: Obama. When Biden announced he would be resigning the nomination, Barack Obama, who last week reportedly told allies his former vice president should rethink his candidacy, posted an eloquent tribute. “Joe Biden has been one of America’s most consequential presidents, as well as a dear friend and partner to me,” he wrote, adding that Biden’s decision to stand down was “a historic example of a genuine public servant once again putting the interests of the American people ahead of his own that future generations of leaders will do well to follow”.
However, he stopped short of endorsing Harris as Biden’s successor. Instead, Barack wrote that he had “extraordinary confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges”.
“For now, Michelle and I just want to express our love and gratitude to Joe and Jill for leading us so ably and courageously during these perilous times – and for their commitment to the ideals of freedom and equality that this country was founded on.”
That “for now” has provoked speculation that Barack is keeping his powder dry because his wife, Michelle, is preparing for a tilt at the nomination herself. She has been tipped as a possible candidate since her husband’s victory in 2008.
Polling by Ipsos conducted at the beginning of this month, as Biden’s withdrawal began to look more likely, projected that of the likely possible candidates, only Michelle Obama would beat Trump.
“In hypothetical matchups with Democratic candidates other than Biden, former first lady Michelle Obama is the only hypothetical candidate to definitively defeat Trump in this poll,” the report stated. “Michelle Obama also tops the charts in favourability among registered voters, with Trump and Biden trailing behind her by more than 10 percentage points each.”
Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos Mori, says that according to his firm’s findings, Michelle would be the obvious choice. “On the data we have, Michelle Obama is the slam-dunk option for the Democrats if she is available,” he says.
“She would motivate Democratic voters to come out and vote much more than Kamala Harris. In our latest poll, although you can see Harris is more popular than Joe Biden, it’s not by much. She is very polarising – she has 39 per cent [of voters] saying they are satisfied, but 48 per cent dissatisfied – and that’s just among her own supporters.”
A Telegraph poll of more than 70,000 readers this week found Michelle was the overwhelming choice for a Democratic candidate who could beat Trump. She took 64 per cent of the vote, with Harris and Newsom in joint second with just 5 per cent each.
There are a number of reasons to think Michelle would be a strong candidate. She is a charismatic and popular figure, who balanced a brilliant legal career with being first lady and mother to two daughters, Malia and Sasha.
Her 2018 bestseller, Becoming, read in places like a manifesto, setting out her influences, experiences and the changes she would like to see in the world. Her husband knows the power of a popular book: his campaign in 2008 was based on his writing in Dreams From My Father and The Audacity of Hope.
In particular, Michelle’s celebrity could be helpful given the unusually truncated campaign. With only four months until the election, there is little time for the Democrats to introduce voters to a new candidate.
“She was generally seen as a successful first lady,” Page says. “She’s done her books, she has her audience: a much bigger audience than Kamala Harris.” According to the Ipsos polling, all the other possible candidates have lower favourability ratings than Michelle, including Newsom, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky governor Andy Beshear and Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker.
“The other challengers are virtually unknown,” Page adds. “Trying to get a profile this late in a campaign is a real challenge. Look at [Michael] Bloomberg. He spent a fortune and got nowhere.”
Bloomberg, the billionaire founder of the information services company and former mayor of New York, spent more than $1 billion on his campaign in 2020, only to withdraw in March of that year and lend his support to Biden.
On the Republican side, Ronald Reagan and Trump have shown that existing fame can be a potent force in politics. Celebrities, including the singer John Legend, the actor Jamie Lee Curtis and the British pop star Charli xcx, were quick to come out in support of Harris. But the Democrats have yet to experiment with a candidate drawn from a field outside of politics itself, although George Clooney and even Taylor Swift have been mooted as possible future candidates. If they did want to trial a high-profile nominee of this kind, Michelle, who is famous but not for anything that could be called frivolous, might be a smart place to start.
A former Biden aide told The Telegraph: “It’s improbable but it’s not impossible that Michelle Obama will run for president.
“She has previously made it crystal clear she doesn’t want the job but it was striking how Barack Obama did not support Harris … so it seems they’re adopting a wait-and-see approach to gauge the inevitability of the vice president’s bid,” the aide said.
“For so many reasons, it would be extraordinary if Michelle Obama did run but then the Obamas’ narrative is one of the most extraordinary stories in modern politics.”
Some Republicans have even openly suggested Michelle would be a candidate they would fear. In an interview with New York magazine earlier this year, Kevin Cramer, the Republican senator for North Dakota, said: “I don’t think I’d be revealing any sort of polling secrets if I said Michelle Obama would probably be the one person that could step in and keep the party united and probably provide a little bit of a moving start because of her notoriety.”
Still, there remain plenty of other impediments to an Obama challenge. Some say Barack has only withheld his support for Harris so far because he prefers to remain above the fray for as long as possible, presenting himself as a unifying vizier rather than a cheerleader. He performed this role in 2020, waiting until late in the day to endorse Biden.
And although some Democrat strategists privately wish Michelle was up for the challenge, she has offered little to suggest that is the case in the way of hard evidence.
The idea that Michelle Obama will run for office is fanciful,” says Richard Goodstein, a Democrat strategist and former advisor to both Clintons. “Barack Obama held off his endorsement by design. He wants to formally embrace her [Kamala Harris] once it’s a done deal, so it doesn’t look like he’s putting his hand on the scale. He is a big admirer of Harris, and the fact that Michelle Obama is so popular tends to pierce concerns about Harris’s race.”
And although Michelle would (presumably) enjoy the support of her husband if she were to enter the race, and enjoys plenty of goodwill within the party, it is clear the Democratic machine is clicking into gear behind Harris. Money, an essential component of any US campaign, has followed suit: Harris for President, her campaign group, has raised more than $50 million in grassroots donations since Biden endorsed her.
For all her involvement in politics, Michelle also has no experience of being a candidate herself. Barack’s presidential campaign came after years of experience as a community organiser in Chicago and the senate.
“Although it’s clear why Democrats are hoping for a saviour to drop down from the sky at the Democratic convention, that won’t be Michelle Obama,” says Dr Thomas Gift, an associate professor at UCL and founding director of its Centre on US Politics.
“Only in the dreams of progressives does a nominee like Michelle, with no firsthand experience running for office and who’s displayed no interest in following in her husband’s footsteps become the Democratic party’s nominee for the White House.”
That may prove the biggest obstacle of all: whether Michelle actually wants the gig. She has been consistently supportive of Harris as a woman of colour in a senior position. “I’ve been thinking about all those girls growing up today who will be able to take it for granted that someone who looks like them can grow up to lead a nation like ours,” she posted when Harris was selected as vice presidential candidate in 2020. “Because Kamala Harris may be the first, but she won’t be the last.”
Although her previous writings and speeches might imply she is not ruling out running for office herself, in her public statements she has always remained circumspect. In 2012, she said “absolutely not” when asked about it. Later that year she said: “It takes a lot of patience to be president of the United States… I’m not that patient.”
Four years later, she told Oprah Winfrey much the same. “I’m not coy,” she said. “I’ve proven that. I’m pretty direct. If I were interested in it, I would say it. I don’t believe in playing games.” In 2018, she said she had never had the “passion for politics”, but had been “dragged kicking and screaming into the arena” by her husband. Earlier this year, her office said she would not be running in 2024. They pointed out her own most recent comment on the subject, when Oprah asked her again for a Netflix interview, The Light We Carry.
“Politics is hard,” Michelle said. “You’ve got to want it. It’s got to be in your soul, because it is so important. It is not in my soul.”
Even if Michelle Obama does not run this time, do not expect the questions to go away. In politics, souls have been known to take a back seat when victory is afoot.
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